[dabigv13]

I believe LTCF are responsible for something like 30-40% of mortality and ICU bed usage in the US pandemic. By vaccinating those folks you create a lot more slack in the system.

Vaccinating essential workers first versus old/sick people first is an interesting conundrum. Perhaps if you vaccinate healthy essential workers, you could cut a lot of transmission and end pandemic sooner as opposed to vaccinating the old/sick people first. But this would be very difficult I think to accurately predict, and luckily it seems the vaccines will be coming quick enough that it will mostly be academic, which I suspect is what will happen with the idea of immunity passports and the like.

I think likely scenario is by mid spring enough people will be vaccinated/previously infected, that routine mask wearing will be enough to keep R below one and the pandemic will be mostly over in US apart from sporadic outbreaks.

[dabigv13]

I believe LTCF are responsible for something like 30-40% of mortality and ICU bed usage in the US pandemic. By vaccinating those folks you create a lot more slack in the system.

Vaccinating essential workers first versus old/sick people first is an interesting conundrum. Perhaps if you vaccinate healthy essential workers, you could cut a lot of transmission and end pandemic sooner as opposed to vaccinating the old/sick people first. But this would be very difficult I think to accurately predict, and luckily it seems the vaccines will be coming quick enough that it will mostly be academic, which I suspect is what will happen with the idea of immunity passports and the like.

I think likely scenario is by mid spring enough people will be vaccinated/previously infected, that routine mask wearing will be enough to keep R below one and the pandemic will be mostly over in US apart from sporadic outbreaks.