11-29-2020, 12:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-29-2020, 01:08 PM by DocSavage87.)
(11-29-2020, 11:53 AM)Goose Wrote:(11-28-2020, 09:04 AM)DocSavage87 Wrote:(11-27-2020, 09:14 PM)Goose Wrote:
As you probably have already noted, I do believe that MOST Trump voters believe that the election was honest. The polls from Nov 7 to Nov 17 were taken before the court rulings and state election certifications etc. ... Yes, I believe that right now most (not all) Trump supporters believe the election was fair and that number is growing with each passing day.
So there was a poll a few weeks ago that you now dismiss and claim that not only have the numbers flipped in terms of the % of his supporters who believe him, but you believe they believe him less every day. I think you are simply postulating based on how you feel and not what we see. You can claim Twitter, Fox, OAN, Newsmax, etc, are all not representative. That's your opinion. I think you are wrong. You have no data to back you up. I at least have some data that show recently, I was most certainly correct. And that's before the echo chamber has plenty of chance to reinforce the lies.
OK, Take a look at
https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking...elections/
I think it illustrates my point.
I think it illustrates the mental gymnastics and selective data interpretation people do to support their own conclusions.
First, the one thing we know about the polls are that they fail to capture some % of Trump supporters because they simply don't want anything to do with them. These supporters are more likely QAnon / deep state believers who hang on Trump's every word and are fact-free. So the polls are likely overestimating the "reasonable" Trump supporters.
Second, you selectively posted portions from the poll and not the damning last line of their first conclusion:
Quote:Sixty-three percent of Republicans say the 2020 election was not free and fair: 40 percent of Republicans say it “definitely” was not free and fair, and another 23 percent say it “probably” was not. That’s nearly twice the share of Republicans who said the race would not be free and fair just before the election.
Despite the fact that we had record turnout and Trump's own government is saying this was the most secure election we've ever had, Trump already losing dozen of court cases, and even Fox calling into question the fraud "evidence", twice the Republicans think it's corrupt compared to pre-election sentiment.
Third, this is yet more data refuting your main point that "I believe that right now most (not all) Trump supporters believe the election was fair."
Fourth, you now assume that because "46 percent say he should concede eventually if he is unable to back up his claims of widespread fraud", this means the majority will somehow accept the election was fair. I think it's extremely naive to think "unable to back up his claims" means to them what it means to rational people. After all, even years after Obama released his birth certificate up to 1/3 of Americans thought he still wasn't born in the US. The Trump supporters in that category may very well want to sound reasonable, but when able to talk a good conspiracy theory why their "evidence" of fraud wasn't accepted by MSM and the deep state, they will stick with the Trump narrative.
Finally, the whole point of the election fraud discussion is how Trump supporters and therefore a decent % of the US will take Trump's word over cold facts. Tens of millions of Americans and therefore the lifestyle of their dependents will accept Trump's narratives on COVID-19 and mitigation factors. The election fraud polls strengthen that argument.
(11-29-2020, 11:53 AM)Goose Wrote: The last "take away" from the poll is IMHO very telling:
Quote:Overall trust in elections has plummeted among Republicans: Prior to the election, 66 percent of GOP voters said they had at least some trust in the U.S. election system. In the latest poll, that dropped to 37 percent. Democratic trust, meanwhile, jumped from 63 percent to 80 percent.The side that won has a vested emotional interest in the elections being fair. Their good result is valid only if that is the case. Therefore, the poll numbers rise 17% among them. OTOH, the side that lost really doesn't like the result, and has an emotional interest in the idea "we were robbed". Therefore the poll numbers drop 29%.
Your interpretation of this data is interesting and I think really shows your bias. Every bit of evidence we have is that the elections were run well, had record turnout despite this pandemic, and that there's no evidence of widespread fraud. Despite this, the most influential and powerful person in our country, POTUS, enabled by very high ranking officials, did his best Putin and mercilessly attacked the counting of votes and tried to persuade GOP election officials to not do their duty by law. Despite this incredible stress test, we may get through it with the actual winner being inaugurated. That's a big win for the resiliency of the election system that has nothing to do with "vested emotional interest". It follows the facts that outright efforts to tamper with the election seems to have failed. However, many could say that we came close save for a relatively small number of people who did the right thing regardless of the cost to their family and future.
