[oregontim]

Do we need to tie spikes to events? Labor Day, Halloween, now Thanksgiving? The classic epidemiology model includes the steep curve upwards that looks a lot like the steepest slope of the classic bell curve, doesn't it? So we might be dealing now with the classic uptick with multiple factors including the general exhaustion with isolation, people quietly bending the rules to go to stores, relaxing their diligence.

I do see why and how there might be correlation between numbers and general state outlooks, so Texas and Florida, as examples of less rigorous states, might do worse than California and New York. And I also see how the Dakota motorcycle event of 250K+ might have impact on the whole region.

I don't see how the increasing case numbers now have to necessarily tie into holidays or single-cause kinds of events.

[oregontim]

Do we need to tie spikes to events? Labor Day, Halloween, now Thanksgiving? The classic epidemiology model includes the steep curve upwards that looks a lot like the steepest slope of the classic bell curve, doesn't it? So we might be dealing now with the classic uptick with multiple factors including the general exhaustion with isolation, people quietly bending the rules to go to stores, relaxing their diligence.

I do see why and how there might be correlation between numbers and general state outlooks, so Texas and Florida, as examples of less rigorous states, might do worse than California and New York. And I also see how the Dakota motorcycle event of 250K+ might have impact on the whole region.

I don't see how the increasing case numbers now have to necessarily tie into holidays or single-cause kinds of events.