[Farm93]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1326681970051411968?s=20[/tweet]

Today's update is grim.  Record number of cases.  Hospitalizations are up by 15,000 just since election day.  Deaths are approaching the peaks seen in the summer and look set to rise further.

And since I know Teejers, especially, keeps track of the hospital data:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1326682878999101443?s=20[/tweet]

Our total hospital bed capacity is about 900,000, so since November, we've been filling up hospital beds at a rate of over 1% per week.  Average census is about 600,000 (higher in winter), so we are going to start seeing widespread hospital capacity issues in a couple months unless we can slow down the virus.  We are already seeing localized capacity issues.

BC

I am in favor of modifying rules based on capacity or anticipated capacity constraints - so long as they are legitimate (i.e., based on numbers - and not some generalized fear).  Thus, I'm fine with areas re-clamping down, if hospital concerns recommend/mandate it.  Contrary to recent posts here predicting doom for SCC, I think the county's hospital numbers remain in decent shape:

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pag...itals.aspx

BTW, I would love to see the second color-coded graph for the entire period of the pandemic.  THAT would be interesting/useful information.  It's too bad you cannot click on a date modifier for the graph provided (as you can, for example, with the ND dashboard).

P.S.  And as stated previously, I believe our views on Covid, need for closures, risk-tolerance, etc. are all based on personal priorities and experience.  I want my 3 kids back in school - freely admit that drives my thinking.  Separately, I have an 87 year old aunt, who has dementia, is in a home in southern California, and has not been well for the better part of two years.  She contracted Covid and we all thought:  "this is it" (while also thinking - "it may be a blessing").  Well, she got through it.  And I wondered - if she survived Covid, what is the health profile of those who don't?  I know this single anecdote is as informative as any other single anecdote - i.e., not at all - but I admit that it colors my thinking.  And of course, you never read about these kind of stories - or even stories about really sick/terminal people kicking "of Covid."  Despite all the numbers out there, I'm not sure there is a good handle on the profile of typical Covid Decedent.  I know when the numbers are at 200K+, it is somewhat silly to think of a particular profile, and many/most will say "what does it matter - those numbers are scary."  I get that and largely agree - but I still think better profile information would be illuminating.

Teejers, the problem with clamping down based on hospital availability is it is a very late lagging indicator.   

To stop when we are at 100% of ICU capacity, for example, is a problem because for 3 or 4 weeks that area will climb well above 100% capacity.  

The catch is to find an indicator that reveals you will be in trouble 3-4 weeks later.   The problem is that too many Americans will squawk and say it is too early, alarmist, too restrictive, etc.   By the time it is clear to that crew, it is way too late.   

It is a tough deal but what has been very clear is the USA has only jumped when it is far too late.   We've already done it again with this wave.   The case ramp, the hospitalization ramp and the death ramp are all racing up.   Cases and hospitalizations are already at new all time highs.

India, with 4 times our population, was slowly catching the USA in total cases, but now we are going to be able to keep our claim for overall cases.

So per the original subject line we are #1, and it looks like we have a lot of officials determined to keep that title.

[Farm93]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1326681970051411968?s=20[/tweet]

Today's update is grim.  Record number of cases.  Hospitalizations are up by 15,000 just since election day.  Deaths are approaching the peaks seen in the summer and look set to rise further.

And since I know Teejers, especially, keeps track of the hospital data:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1326682878999101443?s=20[/tweet]

Our total hospital bed capacity is about 900,000, so since November, we've been filling up hospital beds at a rate of over 1% per week.  Average census is about 600,000 (higher in winter), so we are going to start seeing widespread hospital capacity issues in a couple months unless we can slow down the virus.  We are already seeing localized capacity issues.

BC

I am in favor of modifying rules based on capacity or anticipated capacity constraints - so long as they are legitimate (i.e., based on numbers - and not some generalized fear).  Thus, I'm fine with areas re-clamping down, if hospital concerns recommend/mandate it.  Contrary to recent posts here predicting doom for SCC, I think the county's hospital numbers remain in decent shape:

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pag...itals.aspx

BTW, I would love to see the second color-coded graph for the entire period of the pandemic.  THAT would be interesting/useful information.  It's too bad you cannot click on a date modifier for the graph provided (as you can, for example, with the ND dashboard).

P.S.  And as stated previously, I believe our views on Covid, need for closures, risk-tolerance, etc. are all based on personal priorities and experience.  I want my 3 kids back in school - freely admit that drives my thinking.  Separately, I have an 87 year old aunt, who has dementia, is in a home in southern California, and has not been well for the better part of two years.  She contracted Covid and we all thought:  "this is it" (while also thinking - "it may be a blessing").  Well, she got through it.  And I wondered - if she survived Covid, what is the health profile of those who don't?  I know this single anecdote is as informative as any other single anecdote - i.e., not at all - but I admit that it colors my thinking.  And of course, you never read about these kind of stories - or even stories about really sick/terminal people kicking "of Covid."  Despite all the numbers out there, I'm not sure there is a good handle on the profile of typical Covid Decedent.  I know when the numbers are at 200K+, it is somewhat silly to think of a particular profile, and many/most will say "what does it matter - those numbers are scary."  I get that and largely agree - but I still think better profile information would be illuminating.

Teejers, the problem with clamping down based on hospital availability is it is a very late lagging indicator.   

To stop when we are at 100% of ICU capacity, for example, is a problem because for 3 or 4 weeks that area will climb well above 100% capacity.  

The catch is to find an indicator that reveals you will be in trouble 3-4 weeks later.   The problem is that too many Americans will squawk and say it is too early, alarmist, too restrictive, etc.   By the time it is clear to that crew, it is way too late.   

It is a tough deal but what has been very clear is the USA has only jumped when it is far too late.   We've already done it again with this wave.   The case ramp, the hospitalization ramp and the death ramp are all racing up.   Cases and hospitalizations are already at new all time highs.

India, with 4 times our population, was slowly catching the USA in total cases, but now we are going to be able to keep our claim for overall cases.

So per the original subject line we are #1, and it looks like we have a lot of officials determined to keep that title.