11-08-2020, 03:08 PM
(11-06-2020, 04:33 PM)Goose Wrote:(11-05-2020, 09:58 PM)M T Wrote: Considering that 54% of SCC cases are from unknown contacts, maybe fomites are playing a bigger role than the CDC currently acknowledges.
Could be true. However, the 54% of the cases not being from known contacts is more easily explained by the fact that a total of 58% of the cases either name no contacts (do not cooperate) or cannot be reached (15%). I think that is a much bigger problem.
No, that doesn't explain it. Maybe it is somewhat confirming that close contact is not responsible for even half the spread.
If person B gets COVID, 54% of the time they don't know ANY person A from whom they might have gotten the disease (that are known to have the disease by B or by the county) in the last 2+ weeks. Most likely they would know of whom they had close contact with. (Exceptions would include mass transit, gatherings (sports, political incl. voting in person) where they might have spent 15 minutes near someone they didn't know.)
58% of the time person B can name no person C with whom they had a CLOSE contact in the last week (or since 2 days before the first symptom).
Other than my spouse, I've had one close contact on one day in the last 8.5 months. (And, I didn't intend to have that one.)
You'd have to have a pretty sour view of humanity (at least, those people in SCC) to believe that more than half the people refuse to cooperate when lives of friends and coworkers may be at stake.
