[BostonCard]

To me, the issue on lockdowns is how long lasting the effect. If it is relatively temporary, only a palliative (as the European experience seems to show), what ultimately is the point? My own belief is that we are going to see more and more refined measures of social distancing, rather than an out-and-out lockdown.



As to China, sorry, but there is a credibility gap here. I'm not inclined to believe any posturing of that nation unless independently verified.



Masking and social distancing is so incontestably effective it is hard to see the point of resistance. Trump bears a heavy burden of responsibility for undercutting this. 



But the bottom line is that I don't think any nation has come up with a solution that balances out the various factors of economic distress and public health concern in a fully rational manner. There is an act-of-God quality to the Covid phenomenon that is often overlooked when we get down to 'mere politics'.

I wish I could find the quote, but I heard a lockdown referred to as a policy failure.  It's your last option when the virus is raging out of control, the hospitals are full and people are dying at home because the ambulances are too overwhelmed to even take them to the hospital, as was the case in Italy and Spain and New York early in the pandemic.  Otherwise, in the face of rising case counts and increasing hospitalization rates, you do what you can to slow it down; you shut down high risk activities, limit not quite as high risk activities, and implore the population to do their part to do their part to limit the spread.

The other thing is that you are playing for time.  At the beginning of the pandemic, when vaccine development seemed like it was 18 months away at best, that would have been a hard lockdown to sustain.  But even with delays (and Fauci suggesting the data may not be available until January), you are still in a position where if you can hold the virus at bay for another few months, you can start vaccinating the most vulnerable, which should further drive down mortality.

BC

[BostonCard]

To me, the issue on lockdowns is how long lasting the effect. If it is relatively temporary, only a palliative (as the European experience seems to show), what ultimately is the point? My own belief is that we are going to see more and more refined measures of social distancing, rather than an out-and-out lockdown.



As to China, sorry, but there is a credibility gap here. I'm not inclined to believe any posturing of that nation unless independently verified.



Masking and social distancing is so incontestably effective it is hard to see the point of resistance. Trump bears a heavy burden of responsibility for undercutting this. 



But the bottom line is that I don't think any nation has come up with a solution that balances out the various factors of economic distress and public health concern in a fully rational manner. There is an act-of-God quality to the Covid phenomenon that is often overlooked when we get down to 'mere politics'.

I wish I could find the quote, but I heard a lockdown referred to as a policy failure.  It's your last option when the virus is raging out of control, the hospitals are full and people are dying at home because the ambulances are too overwhelmed to even take them to the hospital, as was the case in Italy and Spain and New York early in the pandemic.  Otherwise, in the face of rising case counts and increasing hospitalization rates, you do what you can to slow it down; you shut down high risk activities, limit not quite as high risk activities, and implore the population to do their part to do their part to limit the spread.

The other thing is that you are playing for time.  At the beginning of the pandemic, when vaccine development seemed like it was 18 months away at best, that would have been a hard lockdown to sustain.  But even with delays (and Fauci suggesting the data may not be available until January), you are still in a position where if you can hold the virus at bay for another few months, you can start vaccinating the most vulnerable, which should further drive down mortality.

BC