[Farm93]

Sadly, this was all predictable.  
The declines would extend beyond a concern about testing positive for COVID.   Some would opt out because a year of toggling between remote, hybrid, limited in class all without any group learning or large social events would be too much.   Then others would come from families that simply need an 18-22 year-old in the labor force earning money or watching (teaching) younger siblings to help the family avoid financial ruin.

But this is just the first part of the story.  Hard for me to believe all schools had long range strategic plans that would cover enrollment drops like the types we have this year.

The K-12 schooling has been tough and very expensive.  If Dec-Mar COVID rates fall into the currently projected ranges, then schools and families are going to have a very hard time maintaining some form of normalcy.

[Farm93]

Sadly, this was all predictable.  
The declines would extend beyond a concern about testing positive for COVID.   Some would opt out because a year of toggling between remote, hybrid, limited in class all without any group learning or large social events would be too much.   Then others would come from families that simply need an 18-22 year-old in the labor force earning money or watching (teaching) younger siblings to help the family avoid financial ruin.

But this is just the first part of the story.  Hard for me to believe all schools had long range strategic plans that would cover enrollment drops like the types we have this year.

The K-12 schooling has been tough and very expensive.  If Dec-Mar COVID rates fall into the currently projected ranges, then schools and families are going to have a very hard time maintaining some form of normalcy.