09-16-2020, 06:08 AM
Conservative pundit and columnist Mona Charen wrote a great piece last week about the parallels between 1980 and 2020. I was too young to be interested in that election and only really remember the Iran hostage crisis, so found it enlightening. She pointed out how Carter led Reagan by as many as 8% in polls at the beginning of October. This was in spite of the country facing a recession, high interest rates, inflation, and that Iran hostage crisis including the failed attempt to rescue the hostages by military force under his watch.
Her thesis is that unbeknownst to the pollsters at the time, Americans were ready to fire Carter but were reluctant to try the new guy in seemingly difficult times. All voters needed to see was Reagan look like someone they could see as a a credible POTUS. That happened in the debate, and was enough to completely change the election outcome into a Reagan landslide.
Charen believes the country is in a very similar position today. The electorate is ready to fire the incumbent - as evidenced by the fact he is already less popular than Carter was - and if they see a legit alternative in the debates, the challenger will win an electoral college route.
Her thesis is that unbeknownst to the pollsters at the time, Americans were ready to fire Carter but were reluctant to try the new guy in seemingly difficult times. All voters needed to see was Reagan look like someone they could see as a a credible POTUS. That happened in the debate, and was enough to completely change the election outcome into a Reagan landslide.
Charen believes the country is in a very similar position today. The electorate is ready to fire the incumbent - as evidenced by the fact he is already less popular than Carter was - and if they see a legit alternative in the debates, the challenger will win an electoral college route.