[BostonCard]

Obviously the basis for comparison is important. Ideally, what we would like to determine is what the effect of a shutdown in Sweden would have been, in the alternative universe where the Swedish government imposes one. Since we obviously don't have that luxury, we have to pick one or more countries to compare to Sweden. 

You could compare Sweden to all of Europe, and note that Sweden's GDP drop is one of the least bad, and that Sweden's death rate is among the highest.  However, I'm not sure all of Europe is the right basis of comparison, since the situation in Italy and Spain when those countries made a decision to lock down was very different from the situation in Sweden when it decided not to lock down. 

To me, the best comparator would seem to be geographically and demographically similar countries: Denmark, Norway, and Finland (ergo my statement comparing Sweden to its "neighbors").  All three of those countries were facing a similar choice in March as Sweden: deciding between locking down even though the number of cases and deaths were low or continuing business as usual as Sweden did.  And compared to each of those countries, Sweden suffered a bigger economic decline, and more deaths.

BC

[BostonCard]

Obviously the basis for comparison is important. Ideally, what we would like to determine is what the effect of a shutdown in Sweden would have been, in the alternative universe where the Swedish government imposes one. Since we obviously don't have that luxury, we have to pick one or more countries to compare to Sweden. 

You could compare Sweden to all of Europe, and note that Sweden's GDP drop is one of the least bad, and that Sweden's death rate is among the highest.  However, I'm not sure all of Europe is the right basis of comparison, since the situation in Italy and Spain when those countries made a decision to lock down was very different from the situation in Sweden when it decided not to lock down. 

To me, the best comparator would seem to be geographically and demographically similar countries: Denmark, Norway, and Finland (ergo my statement comparing Sweden to its "neighbors").  All three of those countries were facing a similar choice in March as Sweden: deciding between locking down even though the number of cases and deaths were low or continuing business as usual as Sweden did.  And compared to each of those countries, Sweden suffered a bigger economic decline, and more deaths.

BC