[M T]

Well, I'm 74 last Saturday, BC. I'm going to be hospitalized for SOMETHING sooner or later. It might be the virus or it might be something worse.

That made me reflect upon the relative seriousness of a first case of COVID-19 versus other ailments.  Since our ages are close, I thought I'd try to get some estimates.

Just being in the 65-74yo age group in SCC back in January, one's chances of not yet dying by COVID-19 are 99.971%.

In Santa Clara County, 537 cases are 70-79yo, of which 44 have died.  So, simply going from the fact that being hospitalized would likely mean you were a confirmed case, your survival probability (ignoring that you were hospitalized, your gender, race, comorbidities, etc) would be 92%.

To date, the COVID-related hospitalization rate for 65-74yo is 150.1 per 100K in California (281.3 per 100K in the US).
In SCC, there are about 138,000 65-74yo.   That would lead to an estimate of about 207 hospitalized to date.
(SCC doesn't publish age demographics of COVID hospitalizations, so I have to estimate.)
There were 36 60-69yo  and  44 70-79yo (and 51 80-89yo) that died in SCC.  I'll estimate 40 65-74yo died.
If we presume that the 40 that died all were hospitalized first, that leads to a survival probability of 81%.
(For 75-85yo, it is 203.8 per 100K in Calif.; 75,122  people; ~153 cases, ~47 died; survival prob. 69%. ) 

In 2006, heart-attack survival rate (65+yo, 1 month after hospitalization) was about 90%.
All cancers 5-year survival rate is 70%
Stroke survival rates:  1 month 72%, 1 year 59%, 5 year 40%  (all cause mortality, not just direct stroke effects)

[M T]

Well, I'm 74 last Saturday, BC. I'm going to be hospitalized for SOMETHING sooner or later. It might be the virus or it might be something worse.

That made me reflect upon the relative seriousness of a first case of COVID-19 versus other ailments.  Since our ages are close, I thought I'd try to get some estimates.

Just being in the 65-74yo age group in SCC back in January, one's chances of not yet dying by COVID-19 are 99.971%.

In Santa Clara County, 537 cases are 70-79yo, of which 44 have died.  So, simply going from the fact that being hospitalized would likely mean you were a confirmed case, your survival probability (ignoring that you were hospitalized, your gender, race, comorbidities, etc) would be 92%.

To date, the COVID-related hospitalization rate for 65-74yo is 150.1 per 100K in California (281.3 per 100K in the US).
In SCC, there are about 138,000 65-74yo.   That would lead to an estimate of about 207 hospitalized to date.
(SCC doesn't publish age demographics of COVID hospitalizations, so I have to estimate.)
There were 36 60-69yo  and  44 70-79yo (and 51 80-89yo) that died in SCC.  I'll estimate 40 65-74yo died.
If we presume that the 40 that died all were hospitalized first, that leads to a survival probability of 81%.
(For 75-85yo, it is 203.8 per 100K in Calif.; 75,122  people; ~153 cases, ~47 died; survival prob. 69%. ) 

In 2006, heart-attack survival rate (65+yo, 1 month after hospitalization) was about 90%.
All cancers 5-year survival rate is 70%
Stroke survival rates:  1 month 72%, 1 year 59%, 5 year 40%  (all cause mortality, not just direct stroke effects)