[BostonCard]

Put together by the Cleveland clinic

https://riskcalc.org/COVID19Hospitalization/

I'll just paste the disclaimer:

No Medical Advice. ALTHOUGH SOME CONTENT MAY BE PROVIDED BY INDIVIDUALS IN THE MEDICAL PROFESSION, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT PROVISION OF SUCH CONTENT DOES NOT CREATE A MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL-PATIENT RELATIONSHIP AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OPINION, MEDICAL ADVICE, PROFESSIONAL DIAGNOSIS, SERVICE OR TREATMENT OF ANY CONDITION. Access to general information is provided for educational purposes only, through this site and links to other sites. Content is not recommended or endorsed by any doctor or healthcare provider. The information and Content provided are not substitutes for medical or professional care, and you should not use the information in place of a visit, call, consultation or the advice of your physician or other healthcare provider. You are liable or responsible for any advice, course of treatment, diagnosis or any other information, services or product obtained through this site.

For what it is worth, I ran the calculator with a 20-year old non-Hispanic Black male with no co-morbidities, a BMI of 27 (which is probably less predictive in an athlete, but would be the equivalent of a 6 foot, 200 lb linebacker), who had fever and shortness of breath and got a hospitalization prediction of 3.1%.  With just fever it is 1.2%, and currently asymptomatic but with a history of asthma it is 1.5%.  These are low probabilities in all, but on a team full of football players, if everyone got it, there is a decent chance one or two would be hospitalized.  

BC

How many college football athletes have you read about being hospitalized?  There is the one well known lineman from Indiana(?).  Not sure I recall reading about any others - and I know I've read about more than 100 positive tests (hell, Clemson has, what . . . 85 all by their lonesome?).  And somehow I think hospitalizations would be reported on . . . and positive tests (though rarely have I seen reporting on both).

Based on what I've read, those %s seem high.  Perhaps significantly so.  Perhaps that is because you are assuming symptomatic positive tests?

Remember, all models are wrong, some models are useful.  Models tend to break down towards the extremes, and I suspect it is probably most well-calibrated for a middle age weekend warrior with a couple of symptoms, high blood pressure, and a bit too much of a belly. There is no box to tick that says "I am a collegiate athlete", which presumably would decrease the probability of requiring hospitalization.  Moreover, I put in a BMI of 27 (again, 6 foot 200 lb), though a 6 foot, 200 lb linebacker with 8% body fat is different than your 6 foot, 200 lb average american with 25% body fat.  So yes, it probably overestimates the probabilities a bit for football players specifically.

BC

[BostonCard]

Put together by the Cleveland clinic

https://riskcalc.org/COVID19Hospitalization/

I'll just paste the disclaimer:

No Medical Advice. ALTHOUGH SOME CONTENT MAY BE PROVIDED BY INDIVIDUALS IN THE MEDICAL PROFESSION, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT PROVISION OF SUCH CONTENT DOES NOT CREATE A MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL-PATIENT RELATIONSHIP AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OPINION, MEDICAL ADVICE, PROFESSIONAL DIAGNOSIS, SERVICE OR TREATMENT OF ANY CONDITION. Access to general information is provided for educational purposes only, through this site and links to other sites. Content is not recommended or endorsed by any doctor or healthcare provider. The information and Content provided are not substitutes for medical or professional care, and you should not use the information in place of a visit, call, consultation or the advice of your physician or other healthcare provider. You are liable or responsible for any advice, course of treatment, diagnosis or any other information, services or product obtained through this site.

For what it is worth, I ran the calculator with a 20-year old non-Hispanic Black male with no co-morbidities, a BMI of 27 (which is probably less predictive in an athlete, but would be the equivalent of a 6 foot, 200 lb linebacker), who had fever and shortness of breath and got a hospitalization prediction of 3.1%.  With just fever it is 1.2%, and currently asymptomatic but with a history of asthma it is 1.5%.  These are low probabilities in all, but on a team full of football players, if everyone got it, there is a decent chance one or two would be hospitalized.  

BC

How many college football athletes have you read about being hospitalized?  There is the one well known lineman from Indiana(?).  Not sure I recall reading about any others - and I know I've read about more than 100 positive tests (hell, Clemson has, what . . . 85 all by their lonesome?).  And somehow I think hospitalizations would be reported on . . . and positive tests (though rarely have I seen reporting on both).

Based on what I've read, those %s seem high.  Perhaps significantly so.  Perhaps that is because you are assuming symptomatic positive tests?

Remember, all models are wrong, some models are useful.  Models tend to break down towards the extremes, and I suspect it is probably most well-calibrated for a middle age weekend warrior with a couple of symptoms, high blood pressure, and a bit too much of a belly. There is no box to tick that says "I am a collegiate athlete", which presumably would decrease the probability of requiring hospitalization.  Moreover, I put in a BMI of 27 (again, 6 foot 200 lb), though a 6 foot, 200 lb linebacker with 8% body fat is different than your 6 foot, 200 lb average american with 25% body fat.  So yes, it probably overestimates the probabilities a bit for football players specifically.

BC