[teejers1]

Piggybacking on post I just made in the Myocarditis discussion thread...

I now believe the Big Ten and Pac-12 made the right call, and the remaining three conferences will have no choice but to shut down. It IS all about Myocarditis right now. But let's paint the full picture.

Start with the fact the schools must be able to do mass testing of everyone very frequently to inhibit virus spread and then isolate those infected and those known to have been in contact. The Pac-12's Medical Advisory Committee flat out said they don't have the capacity to adequately test, and they would need to do even more testing leading up to games against other schools  That's strike one, and makes Jon Wilner look like a clown for suggesting somehow that the State of California's "maybe you could test 25% of the team per week" was somehow viable (more on Wilner in a bit).

Then, the medical advisors said that even if the schools can keep their athletes safe on campus and they all test clean, the idea of sending them out to travel to play games basically opens up and compromises the bubble they are in, commercial aircraft, hotels, etc. That's strike two.

Finally, there is Myocarditis. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have both had athletes be diagnosed with Myocarditis already, but I don't think we have the denominator of all tests done. My guess is not every athlete who has had Covid-19 has been tested for Tropinin levels, but an alarming number of those who have been tested have been diagnosed. So now you not only need massive testing capacity they don't have, to stop virus spread effectively, but they also have to test all positive cases for Myocarditis and then there is this from the Mayo Clinic:

In many cases, myocarditis improves on its own or with treatment, leading to a complete recovery. Myocarditis treatment focuses on the cause and the symptoms, such as heart failure. In mild cases, persons should avoid competitive sports for at least three to six months.

So now you have a situation where anyone who has had Covid-19 should be avoiding competitive sports for 3-6 months. I think many of us have thought about the health and liability concern as a long-term issue, but here's a real live situation where the liability could be this season.  Having kids return from Covid-19, not testing them for Myocarditis, and bringing them back to sports, only to see them have cardiac failures and possibly die, is not a risk any responsible leader would take. Strike Three.

Clemson had what, 37 players test positive? Have they been tested for Myocarditis? Can it run a brutal conditioning camp to prepare for a season? Will they pull back on conditioning to mitigate risk with 37 players having had Covid-19?  Now, what if they have an OL test positive on Wednesday before a Saturday game?  The protocol is to isolate the infected, but also everyone around them, you know, like the other OL.  How can you play a game with no OL?  And how can you play a game with a group that was around an infected person? 

There simply is no way in hell the ACC, Big-12 or SEC can go forward if they in fact really do care for the safety of their athletes as the #1 priority.  People will say "it can be done." I would argue, we could have put a man on the first rocket we built to go outside Earth's atmosphere and had it work. We didn't because it was way too risky, and our caution was justified when the first rocket exploded on the launch pad.

On Wilner:  He has been cheerleading for there to be Fall Pac-12 sports played. My guess is he is thinking about his own livelihood as a Pac-12 reporter more than he is the safety of the athletes. Just sucks to see a reporter prioritize personal interests over the health and safety of others.

Yes, when people are aware of the known risks and say "we're willing to try and move forward," then you need the unknown risks to act as the trump card.  And that appears to be what all the froth around myocarditis is.  

I'm no doc - nor have I read much up on it - but I will say as a layman reading the articles, I wonder (a) if the condition is that uncommon outside of Covid world (or more directly, is the presence in Covid patients akin to presence in non-Covid patients, (b) if the condition is viewed as disabling in non-Covid patients (or was it just never considered because no one gave it much thought?), and © is it feasible to tests for signatures of myocarditis on those who test positive Covid (and should you do it for everyone, regardless?).  I guess what I'd like to get a better handle on is this:  are we raising alarm on myocarditis because it is something that we've always been concerned about/looked for in athletes recovering from viral encounters, or is the alarm being raised here only because we're in Covid world?  And if the latter, is it justified, all things considered.

My sense is the answer to the last question is "yes," and that;s probably sufficient to require postponement.  But it will be interesting to see what becomes "the convention" and what protocols are followed after the pandemic is under better control when it comes to athletes getting "green light" to compete after testing positive for Corona (or other infections that can lead to myocarditis).

[teejers1]

Piggybacking on post I just made in the Myocarditis discussion thread...

I now believe the Big Ten and Pac-12 made the right call, and the remaining three conferences will have no choice but to shut down. It IS all about Myocarditis right now. But let's paint the full picture.

Start with the fact the schools must be able to do mass testing of everyone very frequently to inhibit virus spread and then isolate those infected and those known to have been in contact. The Pac-12's Medical Advisory Committee flat out said they don't have the capacity to adequately test, and they would need to do even more testing leading up to games against other schools  That's strike one, and makes Jon Wilner look like a clown for suggesting somehow that the State of California's "maybe you could test 25% of the team per week" was somehow viable (more on Wilner in a bit).

Then, the medical advisors said that even if the schools can keep their athletes safe on campus and they all test clean, the idea of sending them out to travel to play games basically opens up and compromises the bubble they are in, commercial aircraft, hotels, etc. That's strike two.

Finally, there is Myocarditis. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have both had athletes be diagnosed with Myocarditis already, but I don't think we have the denominator of all tests done. My guess is not every athlete who has had Covid-19 has been tested for Tropinin levels, but an alarming number of those who have been tested have been diagnosed. So now you not only need massive testing capacity they don't have, to stop virus spread effectively, but they also have to test all positive cases for Myocarditis and then there is this from the Mayo Clinic:

In many cases, myocarditis improves on its own or with treatment, leading to a complete recovery. Myocarditis treatment focuses on the cause and the symptoms, such as heart failure. In mild cases, persons should avoid competitive sports for at least three to six months.

So now you have a situation where anyone who has had Covid-19 should be avoiding competitive sports for 3-6 months. I think many of us have thought about the health and liability concern as a long-term issue, but here's a real live situation where the liability could be this season.  Having kids return from Covid-19, not testing them for Myocarditis, and bringing them back to sports, only to see them have cardiac failures and possibly die, is not a risk any responsible leader would take. Strike Three.

Clemson had what, 37 players test positive? Have they been tested for Myocarditis? Can it run a brutal conditioning camp to prepare for a season? Will they pull back on conditioning to mitigate risk with 37 players having had Covid-19?  Now, what if they have an OL test positive on Wednesday before a Saturday game?  The protocol is to isolate the infected, but also everyone around them, you know, like the other OL.  How can you play a game with no OL?  And how can you play a game with a group that was around an infected person? 

There simply is no way in hell the ACC, Big-12 or SEC can go forward if they in fact really do care for the safety of their athletes as the #1 priority.  People will say "it can be done." I would argue, we could have put a man on the first rocket we built to go outside Earth's atmosphere and had it work. We didn't because it was way too risky, and our caution was justified when the first rocket exploded on the launch pad.

On Wilner:  He has been cheerleading for there to be Fall Pac-12 sports played. My guess is he is thinking about his own livelihood as a Pac-12 reporter more than he is the safety of the athletes. Just sucks to see a reporter prioritize personal interests over the health and safety of others.

Yes, when people are aware of the known risks and say "we're willing to try and move forward," then you need the unknown risks to act as the trump card.  And that appears to be what all the froth around myocarditis is.  

I'm no doc - nor have I read much up on it - but I will say as a layman reading the articles, I wonder (a) if the condition is that uncommon outside of Covid world (or more directly, is the presence in Covid patients akin to presence in non-Covid patients, (b) if the condition is viewed as disabling in non-Covid patients (or was it just never considered because no one gave it much thought?), and © is it feasible to tests for signatures of myocarditis on those who test positive Covid (and should you do it for everyone, regardless?).  I guess what I'd like to get a better handle on is this:  are we raising alarm on myocarditis because it is something that we've always been concerned about/looked for in athletes recovering from viral encounters, or is the alarm being raised here only because we're in Covid world?  And if the latter, is it justified, all things considered.

My sense is the answer to the last question is "yes," and that;s probably sufficient to require postponement.  But it will be interesting to see what becomes "the convention" and what protocols are followed after the pandemic is under better control when it comes to athletes getting "green light" to compete after testing positive for Corona (or other infections that can lead to myocarditis).