[M T]

Initially, I was glad to see that today's SCC numbers were down, but I believe that is actually bad news.  It appears that getting test results back has gotten really bad.  As a result, the number of positive tests may be misleadingly low.

If you look at the Cases by Specimen Collection Date, you might think a miracle has occurred. Monday through Thursday last week (older than the 5-day gray period that is expected to increase) are about 1/3 of the previous week.

If you look at Testing, the average turnaround time is now up to 2.33 days (IIRC, it had gotten to about 1.5 days).  The graph text suggests that the values for the past 7 days may increase as more results come back.  That used to be 5 days.  But if you look at the graph of the number of tests, the reported tests on Monday July 20 (8 days ago) is about half (56%) of what it was the Monday before that.
...
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY:  The new California Testing Taskforce guidelines may be discarding(??) tests that used to happen.
According to guidelines dated July 23, tier 4 testing of individuals ("Other individuals not specified [as Tier 1,2, or 3] including: those who are asymptomatic but believe they have a risk for being actively infected as well as routine testing by employers.") "would be implemented when the state's testing turnaround time, as monitored by CDPH, is less than 48 hours."

Another day's report is in.  The numbers for July 20 haven't budged much (up from 55% to now 57% of the week before).  I think what is going on is that the test processing facilities implemented the July 23 guidelines before the July 20 samples were processed.  I'm afraid that the missing half the tests will not be run before the individual passes the 14-day quarantine end (and maybe not before some individuals might die of the disease, but of course they'll get a new test and be tier 1 so they get the subsequent test run quickly).

So, the test results we have from (now) 9 days ago are at 57% of the week before, with cases from samples that day at 49% of a week before.  Test results from 8 days ago are at 37% of the week before, with cases at 55%.

Without the inclusion of at-will test takers, the % positive numbers will grow but won't give much indication of prevalence in the community.

I'm also worried that the number of cases will LOOK the same (259 new cases reported today) but we don't realize that they probably would be much higher (picking a number out of the air, maybe 400) if we were testing as we did last week.  In short, I think we may be missing a big jump in infections right now.

Who was it who said the way to lower case counts is by stopping testing?

[M T]

Initially, I was glad to see that today's SCC numbers were down, but I believe that is actually bad news.  It appears that getting test results back has gotten really bad.  As a result, the number of positive tests may be misleadingly low.

If you look at the Cases by Specimen Collection Date, you might think a miracle has occurred. Monday through Thursday last week (older than the 5-day gray period that is expected to increase) are about 1/3 of the previous week.

If you look at Testing, the average turnaround time is now up to 2.33 days (IIRC, it had gotten to about 1.5 days).  The graph text suggests that the values for the past 7 days may increase as more results come back.  That used to be 5 days.  But if you look at the graph of the number of tests, the reported tests on Monday July 20 (8 days ago) is about half (56%) of what it was the Monday before that.
...
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY:  The new California Testing Taskforce guidelines may be discarding(??) tests that used to happen.
According to guidelines dated July 23, tier 4 testing of individuals ("Other individuals not specified [as Tier 1,2, or 3] including: those who are asymptomatic but believe they have a risk for being actively infected as well as routine testing by employers.") "would be implemented when the state's testing turnaround time, as monitored by CDPH, is less than 48 hours."

Another day's report is in.  The numbers for July 20 haven't budged much (up from 55% to now 57% of the week before).  I think what is going on is that the test processing facilities implemented the July 23 guidelines before the July 20 samples were processed.  I'm afraid that the missing half the tests will not be run before the individual passes the 14-day quarantine end (and maybe not before some individuals might die of the disease, but of course they'll get a new test and be tier 1 so they get the subsequent test run quickly).

So, the test results we have from (now) 9 days ago are at 57% of the week before, with cases from samples that day at 49% of a week before.  Test results from 8 days ago are at 37% of the week before, with cases at 55%.

Without the inclusion of at-will test takers, the % positive numbers will grow but won't give much indication of prevalence in the community.

I'm also worried that the number of cases will LOOK the same (259 new cases reported today) but we don't realize that they probably would be much higher (picking a number out of the air, maybe 400) if we were testing as we did last week.  In short, I think we may be missing a big jump in infections right now.

Who was it who said the way to lower case counts is by stopping testing?