[BostonCard]

I think I read that Moderna's phase three trials has 30,000 participants. Rare complications at a rate like 1 in a million will only be caught after this vaccine is released.

Right, the rough guideline is that a clinical trial of 30,000 participants would only reliably exclude adverse events at a rate of 1 in 10,000 if you don't see them in the clinical trial (the so-called rule of three, which states that upper bound of the confidence interval for 0 events is roughly 3/n where n is the sample size).

BC

[BostonCard]

I think I read that Moderna's phase three trials has 30,000 participants. Rare complications at a rate like 1 in a million will only be caught after this vaccine is released.

Right, the rough guideline is that a clinical trial of 30,000 participants would only reliably exclude adverse events at a rate of 1 in 10,000 if you don't see them in the clinical trial (the so-called rule of three, which states that upper bound of the confidence interval for 0 events is roughly 3/n where n is the sample size).

BC