06-23-2020, 05:19 PM
(06-23-2020, 05:06 PM)82 Card Wrote:(06-23-2020, 04:31 PM)Goose Wrote: The other thing that we can't explain is why New York and New Jersey peaked and then dropped way down and the bay area counties did not. Something is going on that we don't understand, and we are not getting any closer to understanding it, AFAIK.
Until the surge yesterday and today, CA was running at about the same level or lower than NY after their drop, on a per capita basis. For example, if you adjust the new cases in NY two days ago, it amounts to 3,904 in CA. CA had 3,589 that day. The big jump in the last two days in CA is very troubling. But things are peaches and cream in NY either. They are just now starting to open up. I wouldn't be surprised if they take off again.
Good data. I guess I should modify my question to "Why didn't anybody drive the case load down to very near zero?" There are possible answers to this question, including non-compliance, essential workers that can't social distance, influx from other areas, etc. But we just don't know, and as long as we don't know we have an underlying disease baseline we can't get rid of or place bounds upon.