06-11-2020, 06:43 PM
(06-11-2020, 05:53 PM)BobK Wrote: The choices thus far for the Giants
They all look good on paper. And just to share, here's the odds of each draft pick, by round, on making the major leagues, based upon the 1981 through 2010 MLB drafts. (with the Giants number of picks):
1st round, 73% (1)
2nd round, 51% (1, with two supplemental picks between the 2nd and 3rd rounds)
3rd round, 40%, (1)
4th round, 34% (1)
5th round, 30% (1)
So, four of the seven should make the bigs. And less than 10% of the players selected in an MLB draft register a 0.1 WAR or better.
Take the SF Giants 2010 draft:
11th round Adam Duvall was the big winner (6.7 career WAR). .754 career OPS with almost 100 homers in six big league seasons. For other teams, of course.
2nd round pick, Jarrett Parker (1.1 career WAR, 0 for 12 with the Angels last year).
5th round pick, Heath Hembree, 2.3 WAR, nice six year career in middle relief, 13-5 career record, 9.6 K's per 9 innings, throws hard. Again, mostly for Boston. Played a year with the Giants.
1st round bust, Gary Brown, 0.1 WAR and 20th round Brett Bochy 0.1 WAR. Bochy, at least, had a career MLB ERA of 2.84 and WHIP of .790. Why didn't he play more?
Seth Rosin, Alec Asher, Mike Kickham all made the bigs, all with negative WAR. Kickham threw the hardest, straightest fastball you ever saw. Literally no movement. Straight as an arrow. Gave up 9 HRs in 30 1/3 innings pitched. Still in Boston's 2020 spring training, with a 2.08 ERA. Good luck, Mike.
Got to give these minor leaguers credit. 48th round pick Devin Harris played 7 years with a .248 BA in AA ball.
Audaces fortuna iuvat
