[Goose]

DPH has focused its case investigation and contact tracing efforts on those in settings with the highest risk of rapid spread and negative health outcomes. These high-risk settings include, but are not limited to, hospitals, skilled nursing facilities and other health care settings, correctional institutions, and other congregate residential facilities."


I read that as they abandoned any hope of tracking all cases.

Yes, it would appear that is true. The rationale that this will be "adequate" to keep the average Rt below 1.0 is naturally not presented. It may be that will be so, but I would strongly doubt it. Moreover, they should have at least an idea if it would based on what has happened so far. Since they present no data, I can only assume that even that is not true.

"DPH anticipates an ongoing rise in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases that will reach or exceed 2500 cases a day. In anticipation of a rise to this level, DPH projects needing approximately 2500 additional staff to support surge response in contact tracing. "



They use an estimate of 8 close contacts each.  Infectious period from 2 days before symptoms to 10 days after.

Hmm.,...  Santa Clara County wants to have 1000 to handle 75 cases a day, 40 close contacts each.  (My notes indicate that SCC was working to have 500 contact tracers by this week.)

SCC has claimed that they were actually keeping up with contact tracing as of 26 May. However, that was probably under a definition of "contacts" that allowed them to keep up. It is quite interesting to note that we know a super-spreader in Korea who left the hospital to attend church services was a major problem in their efforts, and that later a person at a gay night club was a similar problem. Korea is a country of 52 million people far away from here who speak a different language, and yet we know these things about their contact tracing issues. We know absolutely nothing about SCCs tracing successes or failures, or even how many people they quarantined. They are right here, speak our language and have only 2 million people. Why is that?

[Goose]

DPH has focused its case investigation and contact tracing efforts on those in settings with the highest risk of rapid spread and negative health outcomes. These high-risk settings include, but are not limited to, hospitals, skilled nursing facilities and other health care settings, correctional institutions, and other congregate residential facilities."


I read that as they abandoned any hope of tracking all cases.

Yes, it would appear that is true. The rationale that this will be "adequate" to keep the average Rt below 1.0 is naturally not presented. It may be that will be so, but I would strongly doubt it. Moreover, they should have at least an idea if it would based on what has happened so far. Since they present no data, I can only assume that even that is not true.

"DPH anticipates an ongoing rise in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases that will reach or exceed 2500 cases a day. In anticipation of a rise to this level, DPH projects needing approximately 2500 additional staff to support surge response in contact tracing. "



They use an estimate of 8 close contacts each.  Infectious period from 2 days before symptoms to 10 days after.

Hmm.,...  Santa Clara County wants to have 1000 to handle 75 cases a day, 40 close contacts each.  (My notes indicate that SCC was working to have 500 contact tracers by this week.)

SCC has claimed that they were actually keeping up with contact tracing as of 26 May. However, that was probably under a definition of "contacts" that allowed them to keep up. It is quite interesting to note that we know a super-spreader in Korea who left the hospital to attend church services was a major problem in their efforts, and that later a person at a gay night club was a similar problem. Korea is a country of 52 million people far away from here who speak a different language, and yet we know these things about their contact tracing issues. We know absolutely nothing about SCCs tracing successes or failures, or even how many people they quarantined. They are right here, speak our language and have only 2 million people. Why is that?