06-10-2020, 12:03 PM
A number of states will have increases in cases.
There are a number of possible reasons, but here are the biggies
1- More testing
2 -More testing in at risk communities that were not tested commonly in early months (poor neighborhoods, black & brown communities)
3- More cases
#1 & #2 should have been done as early as March, but were not done at sufficient rates until mid-May. However, they are not really a concern for those worried about identifying a potential mini-wave in hospitalizations.
#3 would be more troubling, but in most states that is hard to tease out from the state totals unless you know how the state has addressed #1 & #2.
However, in some states the hospitalization rates are increasing too. That is more troubling, I don't think that many states are in this category right now, but there are a few.
Arizona is a unique case. In most of the world warmer summer weather features people spending more time outdoors. The indoor air temperatures are higher, at least at home, and generally the humidity is higher too. All of those things reduce the spread. And then we get to Arizona. In Arizona people spend less time outdoors in the summer, often a lot less. The indoor temperatures at work and home are often the same year round.
The Worldometers site has included the projections by state for a number of weeks now. The late April projections included most states approaching 0 new cases by mid-July (that has changed recently BTW). However, even back then Arizona featured projections that included a climb in cases and deaths in June and July. They were rather unique and I always assumed that was a function of their rather unique relationship with summer.
In other states COVID cases and hospitalizations may climb but there would not be seasonal flu hospitalizations competing for beds. So deaths SHOULD be manageable as long as people are generally doing enough to reduce the community spread.
If Americans are listening to their county health officials and their governors, then the community spread could be OK at least until the fall second wave.
There are a number of possible reasons, but here are the biggies
1- More testing
2 -More testing in at risk communities that were not tested commonly in early months (poor neighborhoods, black & brown communities)
3- More cases
#1 & #2 should have been done as early as March, but were not done at sufficient rates until mid-May. However, they are not really a concern for those worried about identifying a potential mini-wave in hospitalizations.
#3 would be more troubling, but in most states that is hard to tease out from the state totals unless you know how the state has addressed #1 & #2.
However, in some states the hospitalization rates are increasing too. That is more troubling, I don't think that many states are in this category right now, but there are a few.
Arizona is a unique case. In most of the world warmer summer weather features people spending more time outdoors. The indoor air temperatures are higher, at least at home, and generally the humidity is higher too. All of those things reduce the spread. And then we get to Arizona. In Arizona people spend less time outdoors in the summer, often a lot less. The indoor temperatures at work and home are often the same year round.
The Worldometers site has included the projections by state for a number of weeks now. The late April projections included most states approaching 0 new cases by mid-July (that has changed recently BTW). However, even back then Arizona featured projections that included a climb in cases and deaths in June and July. They were rather unique and I always assumed that was a function of their rather unique relationship with summer.
In other states COVID cases and hospitalizations may climb but there would not be seasonal flu hospitalizations competing for beds. So deaths SHOULD be manageable as long as people are generally doing enough to reduce the community spread.
If Americans are listening to their county health officials and their governors, then the community spread could be OK at least until the fall second wave.