[Genuine Realist]

The difference is that Germany’s rising case load was being detected in the community.  As Goose mentioned, Charité developed the German test before our CDC developed the one in the US.  Moreover, they were able to implement it widespread enough that they could test anyone with a flu-like illness, and thus were able to find the first case of community spread in Berlin early.

The week head start that the Germans had with an available test was important. It was also due mostly to luck, because there was ongoing SARS research that the PIs immediately applied to COVED-19. The second point I keep trying to make (without much traction, I fear) is that it was critically important the German public health services were there to aggressively pursue containment and surveillance. The first cases of the virus were detected in Bavaria on January 27. That outbreak was contained. Unfortunately, Germany was ultimately unable to contain all the outbreaks and eventually ended up with community spread. However, they knew that because they were out there looking for cases and tracing known outbreaks.

In the US, we had a slightly longer development cycle, and more importantly botched the manufacturing of the tests. However, we had a totally inadequate active network of public health care people out there ready to aggressively search out and contain the disease. Our model was wait until people get sick and go to the hospital. Then we test them, say "yep, you have it", and then do nothing. When we finally got enough cases, we started doing something, but that was SIP. We had no shot at containment at all. We also had little real  on the ground intelligence regarding where the disease was and how widespread it was (or was not).

Germany actually wasn't much ahead of the USA in their lockdown. On 13 March, schools were closed and nursing home visits banned. On March 15 the borders with the 5 neighboring countries were closed, and on March 22 the nation-wide lockdown went into effect. California was already in lockdown. The difference was that Germany had a much better idea on the extent of the disease spread, while we here in the USA were guessing. New York started their lockdown on March 22.

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The thought that the response was 'botched' because it did not occur earlier fails in my opinion to the observed universal experience. Because this mythical nation that jumped on the virus early on and got a head of the curve does not appear to exist.

To be clear, I assume you mean "Western Nation", because Taiwan, HK, and Korea did manage to contain the outbreak. I omit Singapore because they got overrun too. It is just that the population that got overrun was guest workers and they just locked them all up. Actually, I agree with you in large part. All the western nations were flying blind. They didn't really know what was happening in terms of disease spread or the degree to which it had penetrated the population. Germany kind of did. They thought for a while they could contain it. However, in the end it got away from them  and they had to lockdown as well. We will see how they do keeping Rt below 1. The health services are out there actively trying to do that.

I think the trope of 'peacetime army', which is implied in your post, is dead on the money, though the state of readiness varies. The point is that no one in the West reacted on a war footing until early March. There were no warnings that went unheeded. Some nations did better than others, but even Germany had to deal with equipment shortages and various other administrative issues. As I reviewed the matter cursorily, containment seemed random, based on whether the nation was fortunate enough to identify a patient zero or small cluster. Even that failed to halt community spread. 

I read an article yesterday that questioned whether the Washington state cluster in the retirement home, usually assumed to be the first in the United States, actually was so. (I will try to find the link). There is evidently strong reason to believe that the virus was already resident in the population and spreading, by mid-January. If so, the US never had a realistic chance at containment. This seems to me intuitively plausible, given the number of people that traveled to and from Wuhan and the US in December and January.

You are quite right that I deliberately except the Asian nations as anomalous in terms of the West. The societies are more regimented, more authoritarian, homogenous, more accepting of the use of social media data, more insular (literally, in a couple of cases), and - IIRC - in the case of South Korea (Taiwan?), so badly burned by a SARS disaster a few years ago that they were on high alert. Their experience doesn't signify too much to the West.

The point of the exercise is not to make points for You Know Who. It's a rejoinder to the cultural war that the MSM has already begun, in which Blue-SIP- (of course, anti-Trump) is GOOD, and Red-Reopen-(potentially pro Trump) is BAD. This always comes with the corollary that US institutions have failed, are failing, that someone is to blame. But in fact both sets of values - Blue and Red - are pretty important, and I don't think failure modes get you anywhere. (The NYT, the Washington Post, and CNN all seem to have forgotten that they decried even the limited measures put into effect, as did most of the Democratic leadership. No one got this right, because no one had any warning.)

I do believe Covid-19 is an epic natural disaster, one that is going to be with us for half a generation or more, and transform society in ways we can't even imagine. So starting from the standpoint that the present mess is due to some human error or failing will not do. Politicizing it will not do. It's way, way beyond that.

[Genuine Realist]

The difference is that Germany’s rising case load was being detected in the community.  As Goose mentioned, Charité developed the German test before our CDC developed the one in the US.  Moreover, they were able to implement it widespread enough that they could test anyone with a flu-like illness, and thus were able to find the first case of community spread in Berlin early.

The week head start that the Germans had with an available test was important. It was also due mostly to luck, because there was ongoing SARS research that the PIs immediately applied to COVED-19. The second point I keep trying to make (without much traction, I fear) is that it was critically important the German public health services were there to aggressively pursue containment and surveillance. The first cases of the virus were detected in Bavaria on January 27. That outbreak was contained. Unfortunately, Germany was ultimately unable to contain all the outbreaks and eventually ended up with community spread. However, they knew that because they were out there looking for cases and tracing known outbreaks.

In the US, we had a slightly longer development cycle, and more importantly botched the manufacturing of the tests. However, we had a totally inadequate active network of public health care people out there ready to aggressively search out and contain the disease. Our model was wait until people get sick and go to the hospital. Then we test them, say "yep, you have it", and then do nothing. When we finally got enough cases, we started doing something, but that was SIP. We had no shot at containment at all. We also had little real  on the ground intelligence regarding where the disease was and how widespread it was (or was not).

Germany actually wasn't much ahead of the USA in their lockdown. On 13 March, schools were closed and nursing home visits banned. On March 15 the borders with the 5 neighboring countries were closed, and on March 22 the nation-wide lockdown went into effect. California was already in lockdown. The difference was that Germany had a much better idea on the extent of the disease spread, while we here in the USA were guessing. New York started their lockdown on March 22.

---

The thought that the response was 'botched' because it did not occur earlier fails in my opinion to the observed universal experience. Because this mythical nation that jumped on the virus early on and got a head of the curve does not appear to exist.

To be clear, I assume you mean "Western Nation", because Taiwan, HK, and Korea did manage to contain the outbreak. I omit Singapore because they got overrun too. It is just that the population that got overrun was guest workers and they just locked them all up. Actually, I agree with you in large part. All the western nations were flying blind. They didn't really know what was happening in terms of disease spread or the degree to which it had penetrated the population. Germany kind of did. They thought for a while they could contain it. However, in the end it got away from them  and they had to lockdown as well. We will see how they do keeping Rt below 1. The health services are out there actively trying to do that.

I think the trope of 'peacetime army', which is implied in your post, is dead on the money, though the state of readiness varies. The point is that no one in the West reacted on a war footing until early March. There were no warnings that went unheeded. Some nations did better than others, but even Germany had to deal with equipment shortages and various other administrative issues. As I reviewed the matter cursorily, containment seemed random, based on whether the nation was fortunate enough to identify a patient zero or small cluster. Even that failed to halt community spread. 

I read an article yesterday that questioned whether the Washington state cluster in the retirement home, usually assumed to be the first in the United States, actually was so. (I will try to find the link). There is evidently strong reason to believe that the virus was already resident in the population and spreading, by mid-January. If so, the US never had a realistic chance at containment. This seems to me intuitively plausible, given the number of people that traveled to and from Wuhan and the US in December and January.

You are quite right that I deliberately except the Asian nations as anomalous in terms of the West. The societies are more regimented, more authoritarian, homogenous, more accepting of the use of social media data, more insular (literally, in a couple of cases), and - IIRC - in the case of South Korea (Taiwan?), so badly burned by a SARS disaster a few years ago that they were on high alert. Their experience doesn't signify too much to the West.

The point of the exercise is not to make points for You Know Who. It's a rejoinder to the cultural war that the MSM has already begun, in which Blue-SIP- (of course, anti-Trump) is GOOD, and Red-Reopen-(potentially pro Trump) is BAD. This always comes with the corollary that US institutions have failed, are failing, that someone is to blame. But in fact both sets of values - Blue and Red - are pretty important, and I don't think failure modes get you anywhere. (The NYT, the Washington Post, and CNN all seem to have forgotten that they decried even the limited measures put into effect, as did most of the Democratic leadership. No one got this right, because no one had any warning.)

I do believe Covid-19 is an epic natural disaster, one that is going to be with us for half a generation or more, and transform society in ways we can't even imagine. So starting from the standpoint that the present mess is due to some human error or failing will not do. Politicizing it will not do. It's way, way beyond that.