[Goose]

And for what it is worth, the difference in COVID-19 deaths between Germany (102/million) and the US (308/million) is threefold, even though Germany was right smack in the middle of the European pandemic.  Germany is down to ~500 new cases and ~50 deaths a day, while the US is still stuck at 20,000 new cases and 1000 to 1500 deaths per day.  Maybe having a competent leader in charge made a difference?


BC

BC, I am almost certain that having a well-prepared health department in the German states, particularly Bavaria, made much more difference than anything the leaders did. The pattern we see in all these nations is that the ones with active adequately resourced public health departments (at all levels) have done much better than those who did not. These organizations did not require a decision from above to do their "normal" jobs, which allowed significant tracking and tracing right at the start. In nations like Taiwan and Korea it avoided having a full SIP. In Germany it didn't, but it certainly did mitigate the degree of community spread.

It is also true that as a nation the German people are much more compliant with the laws than the American people are. If they are told to SIP, they will. In the USA, people go to the beach. The USA seems unable to drop our new cases to essentially zero, unlike both Germany and China. China did it via a very strong quarantine with lots of teeth. Germany seems to have done it without that level of intervention. Even in the Bay Area counties, we see a disturbing plateau effect. Why? With re-opening the waters will just get muddier.

[Goose]

And for what it is worth, the difference in COVID-19 deaths between Germany (102/million) and the US (308/million) is threefold, even though Germany was right smack in the middle of the European pandemic.  Germany is down to ~500 new cases and ~50 deaths a day, while the US is still stuck at 20,000 new cases and 1000 to 1500 deaths per day.  Maybe having a competent leader in charge made a difference?


BC

BC, I am almost certain that having a well-prepared health department in the German states, particularly Bavaria, made much more difference than anything the leaders did. The pattern we see in all these nations is that the ones with active adequately resourced public health departments (at all levels) have done much better than those who did not. These organizations did not require a decision from above to do their "normal" jobs, which allowed significant tracking and tracing right at the start. In nations like Taiwan and Korea it avoided having a full SIP. In Germany it didn't, but it certainly did mitigate the degree of community spread.

It is also true that as a nation the German people are much more compliant with the laws than the American people are. If they are told to SIP, they will. In the USA, people go to the beach. The USA seems unable to drop our new cases to essentially zero, unlike both Germany and China. China did it via a very strong quarantine with lots of teeth. Germany seems to have done it without that level of intervention. Even in the Bay Area counties, we see a disturbing plateau effect. Why? With re-opening the waters will just get muddier.