[Farm93]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

You gave four examples to back up your point and, at most, one applies.

To date, Sweden has ~30% more deaths per capita than the US.  Sweden is averaging roughly 2x the US's daily death rate right now.  No one who values human life should be following Sweden's example.

Japan has done better than the US--no one really knows why.

Florida and Georgia are seeing flat or growing numbers of cases.  Let's see where they stand in another few weeks.  And lets not forget that voluntary social distancing is probably a big factor here.  Just because they've "opened up" doesn't mean that virus numbers aren't being suppressed by people staying home.

And for Sweden the USA is not really the comparable metric.   Norway and Finland share a similar culture, climate, population density, etc. etc. 

Sweden has a per capita death rate that is 8X-10X of its neighbors.   Its neighbors see a death or two each day at this point while Sweden is running close to 100 deaths a day.  I think the idea that Sweden was an example that shelter in place was unnecessary, as GR implied, is about 3 weeks old.   At the time their citizens were loving life in street side cafes, but now many know they made a mistake as they are not very close to the coveted herd immunity.

Japan got away without doing a lot of mandatory items, but many in Tokyo, and around the country, wear masks almost 24/7 in the spring because of pollen.   They also have a fairly compliant population and a government generally ready to conduct testing and tracing.

Florida and Georgia are a bit early, but across the South cases and hospitalizations are moving higher even with citizens in the biggest cities (Atlanta, Miami and others) staying home.  For the USA it may be better for Georgia to see some deaths in June because if Georgia escapes than citizens will potentially ignore government mandates in November and December.   

FWIW the Piglet and Pooh cartoon doesn't really work for the USA.   That might be more applicable for South Korea or Taiwan.   Here in the USA 100,000 deaths (and counting) is a sign to me at least that we didn't do nearly enough as a country, especially in February.

[Farm93]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

You gave four examples to back up your point and, at most, one applies.

To date, Sweden has ~30% more deaths per capita than the US.  Sweden is averaging roughly 2x the US's daily death rate right now.  No one who values human life should be following Sweden's example.

Japan has done better than the US--no one really knows why.

Florida and Georgia are seeing flat or growing numbers of cases.  Let's see where they stand in another few weeks.  And lets not forget that voluntary social distancing is probably a big factor here.  Just because they've "opened up" doesn't mean that virus numbers aren't being suppressed by people staying home.

And for Sweden the USA is not really the comparable metric.   Norway and Finland share a similar culture, climate, population density, etc. etc. 

Sweden has a per capita death rate that is 8X-10X of its neighbors.   Its neighbors see a death or two each day at this point while Sweden is running close to 100 deaths a day.  I think the idea that Sweden was an example that shelter in place was unnecessary, as GR implied, is about 3 weeks old.   At the time their citizens were loving life in street side cafes, but now many know they made a mistake as they are not very close to the coveted herd immunity.

Japan got away without doing a lot of mandatory items, but many in Tokyo, and around the country, wear masks almost 24/7 in the spring because of pollen.   They also have a fairly compliant population and a government generally ready to conduct testing and tracing.

Florida and Georgia are a bit early, but across the South cases and hospitalizations are moving higher even with citizens in the biggest cities (Atlanta, Miami and others) staying home.  For the USA it may be better for Georgia to see some deaths in June because if Georgia escapes than citizens will potentially ignore government mandates in November and December.   

FWIW the Piglet and Pooh cartoon doesn't really work for the USA.   That might be more applicable for South Korea or Taiwan.   Here in the USA 100,000 deaths (and counting) is a sign to me at least that we didn't do nearly enough as a country, especially in February.