[burger]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

You gave four examples to back up your point and, at most, one applies.

To date, Sweden has ~30% more deaths per capita than the US.  Sweden is averaging roughly 2x the US's daily death rate right now.  No one who values human life should be following Sweden's example.

Japan has done better than the US--no one really knows why.

Florida and Georgia are seeing flat or growing numbers of cases.  Let's see where they stand in another few weeks. And lets not forget that voluntary social distancing is probably a big factor here. Just because they've "opened up" doesn't mean that virus numbers aren't being suppressed by people staying home.

[burger]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

You gave four examples to back up your point and, at most, one applies.

To date, Sweden has ~30% more deaths per capita than the US.  Sweden is averaging roughly 2x the US's daily death rate right now.  No one who values human life should be following Sweden's example.

Japan has done better than the US--no one really knows why.

Florida and Georgia are seeing flat or growing numbers of cases.  Let's see where they stand in another few weeks. And lets not forget that voluntary social distancing is probably a big factor here. Just because they've "opened up" doesn't mean that virus numbers aren't being suppressed by people staying home.