05-20-2020, 03:40 AM
C’mon Mick, don’t you know the best way to make unemployment go down is to stop counting the unemployed?
In all seriousness, the stock markets are now so speculative, so driven by minute-to-minute thinking and so disconnected from reality do to Fed actions that they can’t at all be trusted anymore to be leading or lagging indicators of anything. The reaction to the vaccine trial this week was utterly humiliating for the integrity of those who trade in it and it’s value as some sort of economic Thermometer. On Monday everyone pees their pants with glee with just vague whispers of some progress. On Tuesday everyone poops their pants realizing the trial results actually were no cause for peeing in the first place. The chasm between the artificially inflated equity markets and struggling Main Street economies is like something reaching a point so far away it can barely be made out any longer.
Meanwhile, Governors are trying to sequester truth and mislead citizens about virus spread, following the corrupt AF and made of whole cloth White House public positions. A pandemic that causes people to disengage from others and slow economic activity as a result is no time for governments who want economic activity to increase, to lose the trust of the public. Not only will the lying and truth hiding not stop virus spread, it will actually make things worse for both public health and the economy.
My greatest concern is what happens when the reality of much lower earnings and even losses start piling up for the Fortune 500? Usually those companies react by having layoffs, but the people who would be the subject of them are the only thing keeping the economy going at all. They are the ones like us who have been ordering out and trying to sustain our local businesses, knowing we could lose our jobs too. Will these stock analysts be so dumb as to encourage layoffs in these economic times, and throw gas on the fire?
Jerome Powell knows how precarious the situation is. That’s why he went on 60 Minutes to say Congress must do more. The artificial market inflation calmed investors so maybe Wall Street analysts wouldn’t put pressure on companies to cut their workforces, but as I always say, there is always a price to pay for everything. If companies aren’t whacking people, they are cutting office leases realizing people can work anywhere they want, wherever they want to live. The mortgage debt for CRE, especially for REITs has to be quite concerning. Boston Properties (Embarcadero Center, Salesforce Tower) is a REIT company. It has lost half its value since February, as its stock has gone from $147 to $77, and the plunge has likely only started. How many owners are gonna be able to pay their mortgages as office buildings lose tenants hand over first? We haven’t even started seeing the bankruptcies yet, but they are coming for sure.
In all seriousness, the stock markets are now so speculative, so driven by minute-to-minute thinking and so disconnected from reality do to Fed actions that they can’t at all be trusted anymore to be leading or lagging indicators of anything. The reaction to the vaccine trial this week was utterly humiliating for the integrity of those who trade in it and it’s value as some sort of economic Thermometer. On Monday everyone pees their pants with glee with just vague whispers of some progress. On Tuesday everyone poops their pants realizing the trial results actually were no cause for peeing in the first place. The chasm between the artificially inflated equity markets and struggling Main Street economies is like something reaching a point so far away it can barely be made out any longer.
Meanwhile, Governors are trying to sequester truth and mislead citizens about virus spread, following the corrupt AF and made of whole cloth White House public positions. A pandemic that causes people to disengage from others and slow economic activity as a result is no time for governments who want economic activity to increase, to lose the trust of the public. Not only will the lying and truth hiding not stop virus spread, it will actually make things worse for both public health and the economy.
My greatest concern is what happens when the reality of much lower earnings and even losses start piling up for the Fortune 500? Usually those companies react by having layoffs, but the people who would be the subject of them are the only thing keeping the economy going at all. They are the ones like us who have been ordering out and trying to sustain our local businesses, knowing we could lose our jobs too. Will these stock analysts be so dumb as to encourage layoffs in these economic times, and throw gas on the fire?
Jerome Powell knows how precarious the situation is. That’s why he went on 60 Minutes to say Congress must do more. The artificial market inflation calmed investors so maybe Wall Street analysts wouldn’t put pressure on companies to cut their workforces, but as I always say, there is always a price to pay for everything. If companies aren’t whacking people, they are cutting office leases realizing people can work anywhere they want, wherever they want to live. The mortgage debt for CRE, especially for REITs has to be quite concerning. Boston Properties (Embarcadero Center, Salesforce Tower) is a REIT company. It has lost half its value since February, as its stock has gone from $147 to $77, and the plunge has likely only started. How many owners are gonna be able to pay their mortgages as office buildings lose tenants hand over first? We haven’t even started seeing the bankruptcies yet, but they are coming for sure.