[oldalum]

 Unfortunately, as of now, I see little evidence that San Mateo County, San Francisco County, and Santa Clara County are doing that, or can do that. 

I think we just don't know. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. But I think that it's highly unlikely that the public health officers who were so smart and proactive as to lead the nation in flattening the curve suddenly became so dumb as to not appreciate the need to contact trace all positives and to prepare for a surge in contact tracing, and to not appreciate the consequences of being unable to do that. If they're not ready, I doubt it's from lack of knowledge or effort. Until we actually know what is happening with the ramp-up in capability for contact tracing, I am willing to trust that they are continuing to do a good job. YMMV of course.

On the SCC website are 5 indicators to consider when deciding when and how they can relax the restrictions. #4 is:

"Indicator 4: We Have Sufficient Case Investigation, Contact Tracing, and Isolation/Quarantine Capacity

To break chains of transmission, we must rapidly develop the capacity necessary to identify and isolate persons with COVID-19 and those who have been exposed to COVID-19. In communities throughout the Bay Area and around the country, we must do this at an unprecedented scale and speed, many times beyond what public health departments across the country are resourced to do currently. This will require a massive and rapid infusion of resources, including disease investigators, information management tools, and the combination of housing, food, and income-replacement needed to allow infected and exposed community members to isolate themselves from others. This infrastructure must be designed to accomplish the following:

We reach at least 90% of cases and identify their contacts;
We ensure 90% of the cases that we reach can safely isolate;
We reach at least 90% of all contacts identified; and
We ensure at least 90% of identified contacts can safely quarantine."

They also say: "We plan to report publicly on our progress on these local Indicators, so that the community can also track our collective progress." Sure it would be nice to know how close they are to that capability, but they're the ones who set the goal and I bet they're doing their best to meet it.

They also say: "The Indicators are important measures of progress as we assess whether and to what extent we can move away from the existing shelter-in-place restrictions that have been required to slow the spread of the virus. However, other factors will also guide the Health Officers’ decision making, including the development of other methods to contain COVID-19, the impact of the staged reopening of various sectors, the level of compliance with social distancing orders and guidance, collective compliance with isolation and quarantine directives for persons who are infected or exposed, and other scientific developments during this rapidly evolving pandemic. Further, decisions to modify existing restrictions will be made based on the totality of the circumstances; substantial progress on several important Indicators and other factors may allow additional activities to resume even if certain goals within the Indicators have not yet been achieved."

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[oldalum]

 Unfortunately, as of now, I see little evidence that San Mateo County, San Francisco County, and Santa Clara County are doing that, or can do that. 

I think we just don't know. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. But I think that it's highly unlikely that the public health officers who were so smart and proactive as to lead the nation in flattening the curve suddenly became so dumb as to not appreciate the need to contact trace all positives and to prepare for a surge in contact tracing, and to not appreciate the consequences of being unable to do that. If they're not ready, I doubt it's from lack of knowledge or effort. Until we actually know what is happening with the ramp-up in capability for contact tracing, I am willing to trust that they are continuing to do a good job. YMMV of course.

On the SCC website are 5 indicators to consider when deciding when and how they can relax the restrictions. #4 is:

"Indicator 4: We Have Sufficient Case Investigation, Contact Tracing, and Isolation/Quarantine Capacity

To break chains of transmission, we must rapidly develop the capacity necessary to identify and isolate persons with COVID-19 and those who have been exposed to COVID-19. In communities throughout the Bay Area and around the country, we must do this at an unprecedented scale and speed, many times beyond what public health departments across the country are resourced to do currently. This will require a massive and rapid infusion of resources, including disease investigators, information management tools, and the combination of housing, food, and income-replacement needed to allow infected and exposed community members to isolate themselves from others. This infrastructure must be designed to accomplish the following:

We reach at least 90% of cases and identify their contacts;
We ensure 90% of the cases that we reach can safely isolate;
We reach at least 90% of all contacts identified; and
We ensure at least 90% of identified contacts can safely quarantine."

They also say: "We plan to report publicly on our progress on these local Indicators, so that the community can also track our collective progress." Sure it would be nice to know how close they are to that capability, but they're the ones who set the goal and I bet they're doing their best to meet it.

They also say: "The Indicators are important measures of progress as we assess whether and to what extent we can move away from the existing shelter-in-place restrictions that have been required to slow the spread of the virus. However, other factors will also guide the Health Officers’ decision making, including the development of other methods to contain COVID-19, the impact of the staged reopening of various sectors, the level of compliance with social distancing orders and guidance, collective compliance with isolation and quarantine directives for persons who are infected or exposed, and other scientific developments during this rapidly evolving pandemic. Further, decisions to modify existing restrictions will be made based on the totality of the circumstances; substantial progress on several important Indicators and other factors may allow additional activities to resume even if certain goals within the Indicators have not yet been achieved."

web page