[Goose]

Will this ever not be the case? I mean you can't stay sheltered forever. It seems to me NPIs can be put in place to guide businesses and people, but after that, people have to be let loose and then robust contact tracing must be done.

This is the crux of the problem. It is "OK" (although obviously less than desirable) if there are "a few" cases where the source of the disease is not determinable. However, what is not OK is if there are cases where their contacts are not traced and quarantined as necessary. We are relying on that latter step to replace our complete "semi-quarantine" for everybody. Unfortunately, as of now, I see little evidence that San Mateo County, San Francisco County, and Santa Clara County are doing that, or can do that. The idea that any new or significantly expanded tracing capability could go from a standing start to full speed in a day or so is absurd. They should have been practicing and ramping up during SIP so as it is lifted the Health Departments (and hopefully the public) would know what tracking and tracing capability was actually available and have a good idea what is possible regarding successful containment going forward (hopefully including some surge capacity).

There has been lots of discussion/blame assignments to the Trump administration, China, the CDC, and even some to Newsom. While that is all interesting and important, I am going to assert the following: The County Health Departments have had 60 days to be ready to track and trace. They knew for sure from day one that the removal of SIP was coming at some point. They knew that they were going to be called upon to execute. If they are not ready, and haven't been screaming to the rafters (which they have not), they have NO excuse. I want to see the number of contacts quarantined and the the number of cases who have been successfully traced to their origin on the web county web sites RTFN. It should already be there IMHO. Are we here in the Bay Area actually entering the "wild west" without admitting it, or are we still following what we all thought was the "plan"?

[Goose]

Will this ever not be the case? I mean you can't stay sheltered forever. It seems to me NPIs can be put in place to guide businesses and people, but after that, people have to be let loose and then robust contact tracing must be done.

This is the crux of the problem. It is "OK" (although obviously less than desirable) if there are "a few" cases where the source of the disease is not determinable. However, what is not OK is if there are cases where their contacts are not traced and quarantined as necessary. We are relying on that latter step to replace our complete "semi-quarantine" for everybody. Unfortunately, as of now, I see little evidence that San Mateo County, San Francisco County, and Santa Clara County are doing that, or can do that. The idea that any new or significantly expanded tracing capability could go from a standing start to full speed in a day or so is absurd. They should have been practicing and ramping up during SIP so as it is lifted the Health Departments (and hopefully the public) would know what tracking and tracing capability was actually available and have a good idea what is possible regarding successful containment going forward (hopefully including some surge capacity).

There has been lots of discussion/blame assignments to the Trump administration, China, the CDC, and even some to Newsom. While that is all interesting and important, I am going to assert the following: The County Health Departments have had 60 days to be ready to track and trace. They knew for sure from day one that the removal of SIP was coming at some point. They knew that they were going to be called upon to execute. If they are not ready, and haven't been screaming to the rafters (which they have not), they have NO excuse. I want to see the number of contacts quarantined and the the number of cases who have been successfully traced to their origin on the web county web sites RTFN. It should already be there IMHO. Are we here in the Bay Area actually entering the "wild west" without admitting it, or are we still following what we all thought was the "plan"?