[stupac2]

It's a matter of numbers.  Let's say that the actual local infection rate is 1 in 10,000.  The chances that at least one person in the stands is infected (even if attendance is sparse, say 25,000) is 81%.  The chance that at least one player is infected (if there are 85 on each team) is 2% and probably less because at least for players, the assumption of independence is not valid (that is, if one player is infected, probably more than one are, so it is not really 130 independent draws).

Secondly, there is the fact that mortality among college aged students is going to be very low.  Mortality among fans is going to be higher, potentially much higher depending on the fans' demographics.

I'm not arguing that football should restart; I think we need to see what the data shows.

BC

There are something like 100 total players on a team, plus all the coaches and assistants and whatnot. Plus, given how contagious this is, all their families and other close contacts. You're looking at tens of thousands of people involved with playing the game, the odds that they all manage to go the entire season without anyone getting infected are indistinguishable from 0, and with anything even approaching normal playing/practicing conditions once anyone is infected half the team/staff will have it.

That's the real problem. If you could somehow seal all the teams and staff away from everything else for the season then it could maybe work, but there are too many ways for the virus to get in, especially if we open up and cases start rising again, and double especially if there's a seasonal affect and it comes roaring back right as weather cools off in the middle of the football season.

I'm just skeptical that this can all work, and see no reason why it wouldn't be like the NBA season where one positive comes up, then a bunch of that player's teammates test positive, and the whole thing shuts down.

[stupac2]

It's a matter of numbers.  Let's say that the actual local infection rate is 1 in 10,000.  The chances that at least one person in the stands is infected (even if attendance is sparse, say 25,000) is 81%.  The chance that at least one player is infected (if there are 85 on each team) is 2% and probably less because at least for players, the assumption of independence is not valid (that is, if one player is infected, probably more than one are, so it is not really 130 independent draws).

Secondly, there is the fact that mortality among college aged students is going to be very low.  Mortality among fans is going to be higher, potentially much higher depending on the fans' demographics.

I'm not arguing that football should restart; I think we need to see what the data shows.

BC

There are something like 100 total players on a team, plus all the coaches and assistants and whatnot. Plus, given how contagious this is, all their families and other close contacts. You're looking at tens of thousands of people involved with playing the game, the odds that they all manage to go the entire season without anyone getting infected are indistinguishable from 0, and with anything even approaching normal playing/practicing conditions once anyone is infected half the team/staff will have it.

That's the real problem. If you could somehow seal all the teams and staff away from everything else for the season then it could maybe work, but there are too many ways for the virus to get in, especially if we open up and cases start rising again, and double especially if there's a seasonal affect and it comes roaring back right as weather cools off in the middle of the football season.

I'm just skeptical that this can all work, and see no reason why it wouldn't be like the NBA season where one positive comes up, then a bunch of that player's teammates test positive, and the whole thing shuts down.