[stupac2]

1.  You can shave numbers in many ways.  For example, your arguments on sufficient volume for a business presume all competing businesses would open at the same time, right?  I mean, if 20% venture out, but only 20% of places open up, then those establishments might have a better chance at success.  And btw, I am in favor of slow, measured loosening of SiP, which would include restaurants having outside seating opening before others (without regard to when even those restaurants open up).  



2.  As for spread, I think our disagreement returns to a fundamental difference I had with one poster (maybe it was you) regarding human behavior.  My gut tells me that those who have symptoms are NOT going to venture out, and will SiP or go to a hospital if needed.  Stated differently, I think those venturing out will be a subset of those feeling good/no symptoms.  On top of that, everyone who is out and about will practice social distancing in whatever businesses are open.  These basic factors lead me to believe that spread will be limited once SiP begins to be lifted.  At least that's my hope.



3.  As for disagreements with policymakers, I don't know that I have (m)any.  For example, the guidelines for easing of SiP seem reasonable to me.  But I do have one question, which I have raised before, and it relates to hospital capacity.  The numbers for Santa Clara County (where I live) are encouraging on that front - at least from this layman's perspective.  Lots of hospital beds (acuter and ICU) and ventilators available.  So my question is this:  what will be better at end of May as opposed to middle of May?  Again, my belief is that number of positive tests is, to a large extent, background noise (and highly uncertain) - whether the reported number of confirmed cases is 2,000 or 10,000, the key numbers are still hospital capacity.  I "get" that having confirmed cases can give you an expected ratio to help estimate when capacity becomes alarmingly thin, but again, given that the number of folks out there who have it (or had it) is a big mystery, it seems like a less important figure.  

Maybe the decision-makers have stated what they're looking for before opening up, but my sense is it's more of "we think it safer to wait another 30 days."  It will always be safer to wait another 30 days . . . won't it?



P.S.  I guess my other disagreement is in shutting down activities (recreational, mostly) where there appear to be no real fear of transmission.  That's just bad policy, imo.  But this category is pretty small (tennis courts come to mind - I don't know about whether kids were prevented from kicking a soccer ball around, but if so, that seems over the top, too).   Golf is another, though that's part business, too.

Two comments:

1) You can spread the disease before or without showing symptoms, so self-quarantining isn't perfect. Additionally, not everyone has access to sick time, especially in low-paying jobs (that's likely a large reason behind the outbreaks in meat-processing facilities, from what I've read). Of course, near-universal adoption of mask-wearing for healthy people when they'll be near other people would likely help that a lot.

2) It sounds like you barely if at all disagree with me or anyone else on this board regarding policy. So why do you keep posting things like:

Hey Mick, either get in line with the GroupThink in these parts or get out.  This kind of talk is unacceptable.

If we all agree that SiP is a necessary evil, and that the plans for reopening are basically right, who are you even addressing with that comment? I genuinely don't understand this.

[stupac2]

1.  You can shave numbers in many ways.  For example, your arguments on sufficient volume for a business presume all competing businesses would open at the same time, right?  I mean, if 20% venture out, but only 20% of places open up, then those establishments might have a better chance at success.  And btw, I am in favor of slow, measured loosening of SiP, which would include restaurants having outside seating opening before others (without regard to when even those restaurants open up).  



2.  As for spread, I think our disagreement returns to a fundamental difference I had with one poster (maybe it was you) regarding human behavior.  My gut tells me that those who have symptoms are NOT going to venture out, and will SiP or go to a hospital if needed.  Stated differently, I think those venturing out will be a subset of those feeling good/no symptoms.  On top of that, everyone who is out and about will practice social distancing in whatever businesses are open.  These basic factors lead me to believe that spread will be limited once SiP begins to be lifted.  At least that's my hope.



3.  As for disagreements with policymakers, I don't know that I have (m)any.  For example, the guidelines for easing of SiP seem reasonable to me.  But I do have one question, which I have raised before, and it relates to hospital capacity.  The numbers for Santa Clara County (where I live) are encouraging on that front - at least from this layman's perspective.  Lots of hospital beds (acuter and ICU) and ventilators available.  So my question is this:  what will be better at end of May as opposed to middle of May?  Again, my belief is that number of positive tests is, to a large extent, background noise (and highly uncertain) - whether the reported number of confirmed cases is 2,000 or 10,000, the key numbers are still hospital capacity.  I "get" that having confirmed cases can give you an expected ratio to help estimate when capacity becomes alarmingly thin, but again, given that the number of folks out there who have it (or had it) is a big mystery, it seems like a less important figure.  

Maybe the decision-makers have stated what they're looking for before opening up, but my sense is it's more of "we think it safer to wait another 30 days."  It will always be safer to wait another 30 days . . . won't it?



P.S.  I guess my other disagreement is in shutting down activities (recreational, mostly) where there appear to be no real fear of transmission.  That's just bad policy, imo.  But this category is pretty small (tennis courts come to mind - I don't know about whether kids were prevented from kicking a soccer ball around, but if so, that seems over the top, too).   Golf is another, though that's part business, too.

Two comments:

1) You can spread the disease before or without showing symptoms, so self-quarantining isn't perfect. Additionally, not everyone has access to sick time, especially in low-paying jobs (that's likely a large reason behind the outbreaks in meat-processing facilities, from what I've read). Of course, near-universal adoption of mask-wearing for healthy people when they'll be near other people would likely help that a lot.

2) It sounds like you barely if at all disagree with me or anyone else on this board regarding policy. So why do you keep posting things like:

Hey Mick, either get in line with the GroupThink in these parts or get out.  This kind of talk is unacceptable.

If we all agree that SiP is a necessary evil, and that the plans for reopening are basically right, who are you even addressing with that comment? I genuinely don't understand this.