[M T]

(In anticipation of someone arguing that we therefore should drop the SiP, I'll point out at this point, without SiP, two weeks from now we'd be about where we were 2 weeks into SiP.)

How can you say that with any certainty?  Are you assuming any self-regulation at all?  Are you assuming self-regulation but "offsetting" that with a greater number of asymptomatic people out there who will be prime spreaders (i.e., at a level greater than when SiP initiated)?



Last question:  do these testing numbers pertain only to positive/negative test for the virus?  Does the same test reveal antibodies (I assume no, but am no doctor and haven't been reading the study evaluations in these parts in any detail).



The hospital capacity numbers (which I view as the most important for decision-making purposes) are encouraging . . . at least as I read them.

As far as I know, the only tests used in California by the public health offices are the CDC approved tests for detecting SARS-Cov-2, not any antibody tests.

The Santa Clara County Executive Officer on Sunday, in phone Town Hall meeting, said they know a spike is going to come when they loosen SiP.

Under whatever operating conditions are in place on any day,  the general model for infections is that the are exponential curves.  If R0 > 1, they grow.  If < 1, they shrink.

Suppose that on day 0, you change the operating conditions (say, remove SiP).  It will take a day at least for any real changes to happen and for exposures to happen or not.
But because of more delays involved (~5 days for symptoms to appear, ~1-5 days to go to doctor, ~1 day for test, ~1 day for posting), we won't know for nearly 2 weeks, whether we've got exponential growth or not.  

I think we'll have exponential growth.  (Under pretty drastic SiP, SCC took a long time to gain any ground on the new cases;
I look at the result of 6 weeks of SiP in SoCal and I see continued growth in cases & little regard by many for the social distancing rules;.  I worry that increased travel between areas will seed more cases;  I worry that places like Las Vegas will seed cases here;  I don't have any confidence that test & trace will work more than just for housemates or coworkers when the only 3 N.Cal counties reporting numbers indicate about 1/3 is "community acquired";  I see no utility for antibody tests for preventing spread by chasing down active cases.)

If we do have exponential growth, we'll have to tighten the rules. Making the new rules will take a week.

Now, we're getting close to 20 days.     The region has had 20 days of growth before the region can react to the growth.
So, the region's Public Health Department changes the settings,  and waits another 20 days to see what happens. 
It is hard to adjust a dynamic system with such latency.    If some restriction of SiP for citizens is relaxed, it will be hard to reinstate it (it will be somewhat easier to change the requirements on businesses, but once a business reopens, I don't think it will be easy to shut it down again,  no matter how much its operation contributes to the spread of the disease.

While Your Mileage May Vary, I believe everyone in an area is going to experience the same mileage.

[M T]

(In anticipation of someone arguing that we therefore should drop the SiP, I'll point out at this point, without SiP, two weeks from now we'd be about where we were 2 weeks into SiP.)

How can you say that with any certainty?  Are you assuming any self-regulation at all?  Are you assuming self-regulation but "offsetting" that with a greater number of asymptomatic people out there who will be prime spreaders (i.e., at a level greater than when SiP initiated)?



Last question:  do these testing numbers pertain only to positive/negative test for the virus?  Does the same test reveal antibodies (I assume no, but am no doctor and haven't been reading the study evaluations in these parts in any detail).



The hospital capacity numbers (which I view as the most important for decision-making purposes) are encouraging . . . at least as I read them.

As far as I know, the only tests used in California by the public health offices are the CDC approved tests for detecting SARS-Cov-2, not any antibody tests.

The Santa Clara County Executive Officer on Sunday, in phone Town Hall meeting, said they know a spike is going to come when they loosen SiP.

Under whatever operating conditions are in place on any day,  the general model for infections is that the are exponential curves.  If R0 > 1, they grow.  If < 1, they shrink.

Suppose that on day 0, you change the operating conditions (say, remove SiP).  It will take a day at least for any real changes to happen and for exposures to happen or not.
But because of more delays involved (~5 days for symptoms to appear, ~1-5 days to go to doctor, ~1 day for test, ~1 day for posting), we won't know for nearly 2 weeks, whether we've got exponential growth or not.  

I think we'll have exponential growth.  (Under pretty drastic SiP, SCC took a long time to gain any ground on the new cases;
I look at the result of 6 weeks of SiP in SoCal and I see continued growth in cases & little regard by many for the social distancing rules;.  I worry that increased travel between areas will seed more cases;  I worry that places like Las Vegas will seed cases here;  I don't have any confidence that test & trace will work more than just for housemates or coworkers when the only 3 N.Cal counties reporting numbers indicate about 1/3 is "community acquired";  I see no utility for antibody tests for preventing spread by chasing down active cases.)

If we do have exponential growth, we'll have to tighten the rules. Making the new rules will take a week.

Now, we're getting close to 20 days.     The region has had 20 days of growth before the region can react to the growth.
So, the region's Public Health Department changes the settings,  and waits another 20 days to see what happens. 
It is hard to adjust a dynamic system with such latency.    If some restriction of SiP for citizens is relaxed, it will be hard to reinstate it (it will be somewhat easier to change the requirements on businesses, but once a business reopens, I don't think it will be easy to shut it down again,  no matter how much its operation contributes to the spread of the disease.

While Your Mileage May Vary, I believe everyone in an area is going to experience the same mileage.