[M T]

FWIW, given the trends, I'm optimstic about a partial reopening in a month or so.  I think we'll be allowed to do outdoor stuff, go to the beach (Sacramento people like me have never been to one, but I hear they're nice), golf, etc.  Indoor stuff reopening is probably further out.  A month from now we'll have data from GA, etc. on how their (wildly irresponsible) experiment is going, so that may influence things her.

The SF Bay Area counties Shelter-in-Place order expires in a week (next Sunday).  In a public call today, the Santa Clara County Executive Officer indicated that the Bay Area health officers are working on a new order to be made this coming week.  I expect some loosening this week but not much.  Over time, there will be a staged reopening. 

I note that, in the week before going into shelter-in-place, LA County had fewer cases (196/week) than Santa Clara County (220/week).  LA County now has several thousand cases per week, after weeks of shelter-in-place, while Santa Clara County is down to about 150 per week.  (On a per-capita bases, 3000 cases/per week in 10M LAC = 600 per week in 2M SCC.)   To me, it isn't a stretch to think SCC might be that bad off in 6 weeks if people & companies
stop doing all they have to make this work.

Shelter-in-place is not like a short-term course of drugs. A 6 or 8 weeks course of SiP doesn't cure the disease.  It's more like a tourniquet.  As long as you have it in place, it works.  Take it off and the bleeding resumes.

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Another bit of data at some of the counties' website, regarding their analysis of the sources of infections:

Santa Cruz County:  18% travel, 36% known person, 34% community acquired, 17% under investigation.
San Francisco County:  21%  known person, 47% community contact, 32% unknown.
Monterey County:  8% travel, 54% known contact, 28% community acquired, 10% under investigation.

"Community acquired" and "travel" basically mean that they didn't find the source of the infection.  
"Travel" means "out of our jurisdiction".
I'd take "unknown" as "we didn't have the ability to look into it."

But that many community acquired cases may just be beyond tracing down.

[M T]

FWIW, given the trends, I'm optimstic about a partial reopening in a month or so.  I think we'll be allowed to do outdoor stuff, go to the beach (Sacramento people like me have never been to one, but I hear they're nice), golf, etc.  Indoor stuff reopening is probably further out.  A month from now we'll have data from GA, etc. on how their (wildly irresponsible) experiment is going, so that may influence things her.

The SF Bay Area counties Shelter-in-Place order expires in a week (next Sunday).  In a public call today, the Santa Clara County Executive Officer indicated that the Bay Area health officers are working on a new order to be made this coming week.  I expect some loosening this week but not much.  Over time, there will be a staged reopening. 

I note that, in the week before going into shelter-in-place, LA County had fewer cases (196/week) than Santa Clara County (220/week).  LA County now has several thousand cases per week, after weeks of shelter-in-place, while Santa Clara County is down to about 150 per week.  (On a per-capita bases, 3000 cases/per week in 10M LAC = 600 per week in 2M SCC.)   To me, it isn't a stretch to think SCC might be that bad off in 6 weeks if people & companies
stop doing all they have to make this work.

Shelter-in-place is not like a short-term course of drugs. A 6 or 8 weeks course of SiP doesn't cure the disease.  It's more like a tourniquet.  As long as you have it in place, it works.  Take it off and the bleeding resumes.

---

Another bit of data at some of the counties' website, regarding their analysis of the sources of infections:

Santa Cruz County:  18% travel, 36% known person, 34% community acquired, 17% under investigation.
San Francisco County:  21%  known person, 47% community contact, 32% unknown.
Monterey County:  8% travel, 54% known contact, 28% community acquired, 10% under investigation.

"Community acquired" and "travel" basically mean that they didn't find the source of the infection.  
"Travel" means "out of our jurisdiction".
I'd take "unknown" as "we didn't have the ability to look into it."

But that many community acquired cases may just be beyond tracing down.