04-17-2020, 08:20 PM
Thoughts from Trevor Bedford(who noted the connection between the nursing home in WA and the first US case)
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1251332447691628545?s=20[/tweet]
Points out that if the specificity is just a tad worse at 98.5%, the estimated prevalence would be 0.
(I'll leave it to you all to explain if that makes sense)
There's also a more in depth breakdown of reasons why the numbers may be off on that tweet thread.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1251332447691628545?s=20[/tweet]
Points out that if the specificity is just a tad worse at 98.5%, the estimated prevalence would be 0.
(I'll leave it to you all to explain if that makes sense)
There's also a more in depth breakdown of reasons why the numbers may be off on that tweet thread.