[dabigv13]

I think we'll end up around 0.5, or 5 times that of a really bad flu year. But it's different for a couple reasons. 1), this virus has no immunity in the population, as it is totally novel, and there is no vaccine, 2) this virus seems to be much more contagious than the flu, so it spreads on an exponentially steeper curve, even though it takes more time to start with symptoms and likely longer to kill them than the flu. So that means it will more rapidly overwhelm your healthcare system, and will keep it occupied for a while even if it doesn't get fully overwhelmed.

The actual fatality ratio doesn't tell the whole story. Also, the fatality ratio rapidly goes up when healthcare systems are overwhelmed like this virus has demonstrated.

[dabigv13]

I think we'll end up around 0.5, or 5 times that of a really bad flu year. But it's different for a couple reasons. 1), this virus has no immunity in the population, as it is totally novel, and there is no vaccine, 2) this virus seems to be much more contagious than the flu, so it spreads on an exponentially steeper curve, even though it takes more time to start with symptoms and likely longer to kill them than the flu. So that means it will more rapidly overwhelm your healthcare system, and will keep it occupied for a while even if it doesn't get fully overwhelmed.

The actual fatality ratio doesn't tell the whole story. Also, the fatality ratio rapidly goes up when healthcare systems are overwhelmed like this virus has demonstrated.