[stupac2]

One other thing I'd add, which I've probably harped on at length: I think a lot of people aren't going to go back to their normal ways even once the government legally allows them to. This poll seems to confirm that:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1250420880187854850?s=20[/tweet]

Which strikes me as thinking we really need to get the testing, social contact tracing, and isolation procedures into place ASAP so that people can start to feel comfortable going back out in their communities. If they don't, and they can afford not to, it will be impossible to "re-open" the economy in the way people seem to be thinking we're just weeks away from.

Right, this is something that I think many people are missing (presumably those in the 20% who would go back to normal immediately), even if you lifted SiP and essential business restrictions tomorrow, those businesses can't and won't just snap back to normal. Even if they 20% of people who would go back are the ones who were most loyal customers at the various restricted businesses, and you get somewhat more takeup from the remaining 80% than you have now, you're still looking at massively scaled back workforces and a bunch of business failures.

My understanding of the restaurant industry, for example, is that a 10% reduction in revenue would be catastrophic. How do you get out of this with less than that? It's going to be functionally impossible, and lots of businesses are going to close absent massive, massive government support.

[stupac2]

One other thing I'd add, which I've probably harped on at length: I think a lot of people aren't going to go back to their normal ways even once the government legally allows them to. This poll seems to confirm that:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1250420880187854850?s=20[/tweet]

Which strikes me as thinking we really need to get the testing, social contact tracing, and isolation procedures into place ASAP so that people can start to feel comfortable going back out in their communities. If they don't, and they can afford not to, it will be impossible to "re-open" the economy in the way people seem to be thinking we're just weeks away from.

Right, this is something that I think many people are missing (presumably those in the 20% who would go back to normal immediately), even if you lifted SiP and essential business restrictions tomorrow, those businesses can't and won't just snap back to normal. Even if they 20% of people who would go back are the ones who were most loyal customers at the various restricted businesses, and you get somewhat more takeup from the remaining 80% than you have now, you're still looking at massively scaled back workforces and a bunch of business failures.

My understanding of the restaurant industry, for example, is that a 10% reduction in revenue would be catastrophic. How do you get out of this with less than that? It's going to be functionally impossible, and lots of businesses are going to close absent massive, massive government support.