[BostonCard]

At it's peak Spain was diagnosing 8000 people a day, and about 900 people a day were dying.  Right now that is down to about 4000 diagnoses a day and 500 - 600 deaths.  You can expect that the number of infected will continue to drop for at least a week (given the delay between exposure and diagnosis).    So, figure they will get down to under 3000 diagnoses a day and under 400 deaths (deaths will continue to drop even if diagnoses pick up).

A spike back up to 4000/500 (where we are now) is likely tolerable.   8000/900 (the previous peak) is probably not.  In between, I don't know, but I suspect the government might be forced to rescind some of the relaxations if more than 5000 people a day are diagnosed.

Maybe I'm unreasonably optimistic, but I have a feeling that even with a relaxation of some requirements, there won't be a second spike, and things will kind of remain flat after they relax things.  Not ideal, but manageable.

BC

[BostonCard]

At it's peak Spain was diagnosing 8000 people a day, and about 900 people a day were dying.  Right now that is down to about 4000 diagnoses a day and 500 - 600 deaths.  You can expect that the number of infected will continue to drop for at least a week (given the delay between exposure and diagnosis).    So, figure they will get down to under 3000 diagnoses a day and under 400 deaths (deaths will continue to drop even if diagnoses pick up).

A spike back up to 4000/500 (where we are now) is likely tolerable.   8000/900 (the previous peak) is probably not.  In between, I don't know, but I suspect the government might be forced to rescind some of the relaxations if more than 5000 people a day are diagnosed.

Maybe I'm unreasonably optimistic, but I have a feeling that even with a relaxation of some requirements, there won't be a second spike, and things will kind of remain flat after they relax things.  Not ideal, but manageable.

BC