[Genuine Realist]

Exactly, rephrase that hypothetical question as "you have a x% chance of killing your (parents, grandparents, spouse) let alone inadvertently killing some random stranger" and the calculus is a lot different, even if that x is a lot smaller than of you dying yourself.

BC

That's a bit too clean an analysis. The issue is that, as the shutdown goes on and on, indirect negative effects begin to accumulate - not as direct and measurable as infection and death, but extant and important. At some tipping point - and don't ask me exactly what that is - the indirect negative effects outweigh the measurable negative effects of the virus.

My own bet is that we are going to see a gradual relaxation of the shutdown, with more and more businesses permitted to reopening, conditional on sensible measures to protect employees and customers (gloves, masks, that short of thing.)

Or are you suggesting we all grown our own food? We have to keep basic distributions systems going, with profit enough to pay employees - and you don't make that kind of profit without substantial customer traffic. We have to keep the power grid active, and the Internet, which has become essential. We have to do basic maintenance to capital infrastructure, including vehicles. We have to keep our airlines and transportation systems viable.

I don't agree with Mick, because I don't think that tipping point has arrived. But it is very real, and it is coming.

[Genuine Realist]

Exactly, rephrase that hypothetical question as "you have a x% chance of killing your (parents, grandparents, spouse) let alone inadvertently killing some random stranger" and the calculus is a lot different, even if that x is a lot smaller than of you dying yourself.

BC

That's a bit too clean an analysis. The issue is that, as the shutdown goes on and on, indirect negative effects begin to accumulate - not as direct and measurable as infection and death, but extant and important. At some tipping point - and don't ask me exactly what that is - the indirect negative effects outweigh the measurable negative effects of the virus.

My own bet is that we are going to see a gradual relaxation of the shutdown, with more and more businesses permitted to reopening, conditional on sensible measures to protect employees and customers (gloves, masks, that short of thing.)

Or are you suggesting we all grown our own food? We have to keep basic distributions systems going, with profit enough to pay employees - and you don't make that kind of profit without substantial customer traffic. We have to keep the power grid active, and the Internet, which has become essential. We have to do basic maintenance to capital infrastructure, including vehicles. We have to keep our airlines and transportation systems viable.

I don't agree with Mick, because I don't think that tipping point has arrived. But it is very real, and it is coming.