[burger]

That's why all of the conditions have to be met.  The sustained reduction of cases has to be linked with hospitals being away from surge state, and the capability to test all people with symptoms, and to conduct active monitoring of cases and contacts.  Also, it is meant to be a partial reopening; lifting all restrictions wouldn't occur until protections can be established.  A sustained reduction in cases is necessary but not sufficient for reopening.

Also, I don't think the transition from 1 to 2 to be a discrete event.  While the reduction in cases is happening, the state will have to ramp up testing and tracking.  And I expect reopening to be done in a phased fashion.  For example, one can start increasing the exemptions to the shelter in place rule, while maintaining some restrictions.  Schools might be re-opened in a blended fashion, with students alternating between studying from home and going into a half-full school, to maintain more social distance.  If cases continue to decline then further restrictions can be lifted, while they can be re-tightened in response to surveillance showing a localized increase in cases.

BC

My point (not well stated, I admit) was that 14 days of reduction in cases from the peak implies a very large number of cases in the community still.  That would seriously strain any testing/tracing regime, especially a newly implemented one.  Eventually we will have a lot of experience and expertise in tracing contacts and mitigating small outbreaks, but not at first.

I'd want to see at least a month or two of sustained declines in cases before we even start to open things up.  This article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/cor...aningless/ makes a good case that the peak in the number of positive tests is a poor indicator of the timing of the peak of infections.  So, to be safe, lets wait a few extra weeks or even an extra month before opening things up again.  A few extra weeks of lockdown will be less costly, financially and socially, than having to shut everything again.

[burger]

That's why all of the conditions have to be met.  The sustained reduction of cases has to be linked with hospitals being away from surge state, and the capability to test all people with symptoms, and to conduct active monitoring of cases and contacts.  Also, it is meant to be a partial reopening; lifting all restrictions wouldn't occur until protections can be established.  A sustained reduction in cases is necessary but not sufficient for reopening.

Also, I don't think the transition from 1 to 2 to be a discrete event.  While the reduction in cases is happening, the state will have to ramp up testing and tracking.  And I expect reopening to be done in a phased fashion.  For example, one can start increasing the exemptions to the shelter in place rule, while maintaining some restrictions.  Schools might be re-opened in a blended fashion, with students alternating between studying from home and going into a half-full school, to maintain more social distance.  If cases continue to decline then further restrictions can be lifted, while they can be re-tightened in response to surveillance showing a localized increase in cases.

BC

My point (not well stated, I admit) was that 14 days of reduction in cases from the peak implies a very large number of cases in the community still.  That would seriously strain any testing/tracing regime, especially a newly implemented one.  Eventually we will have a lot of experience and expertise in tracing contacts and mitigating small outbreaks, but not at first.

I'd want to see at least a month or two of sustained declines in cases before we even start to open things up.  This article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/cor...aningless/ makes a good case that the peak in the number of positive tests is a poor indicator of the timing of the peak of infections.  So, to be safe, lets wait a few extra weeks or even an extra month before opening things up again.  A few extra weeks of lockdown will be less costly, financially and socially, than having to shut everything again.