[burger]

The UW guy made clear that the low end of projections are based on an assumption all states have stay at home orders. Given only 30 do at this time, they feel there is a lot of upside to the projections. The White House/Fauci projection of 100k-240k deaths was probably a "special order" number they got for "give us the projections for if all states are shut down on Wednesday out to a week from Wednesday."  

So the UW model is guaranteed to be wrong for 20 states.  And it's probably wrong for the other 30 because the model assumes the curve for the number infected will have the same shape as it did in Wuhan, which was basically turned into a prison.  

I'd suggest that people pay no attention to this model.  Pay attention to the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths.  Those are your best indicators.  Predicting what is going to happen with this virus more than a few days out is a fool's game.

[burger]

The UW guy made clear that the low end of projections are based on an assumption all states have stay at home orders. Given only 30 do at this time, they feel there is a lot of upside to the projections. The White House/Fauci projection of 100k-240k deaths was probably a "special order" number they got for "give us the projections for if all states are shut down on Wednesday out to a week from Wednesday."  

So the UW model is guaranteed to be wrong for 20 states.  And it's probably wrong for the other 30 because the model assumes the curve for the number infected will have the same shape as it did in Wuhan, which was basically turned into a prison.  

I'd suggest that people pay no attention to this model.  Pay attention to the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths.  Those are your best indicators.  Predicting what is going to happen with this virus more than a few days out is a fool's game.