[OutsiderFan]

The UW guy made clear that the low end of projections are based on an assumption all states have stay at home orders.

My impression from the interview (which could be wrong) was that the low end of projections assumes that all states currently lacking stay-at-home orders will have them in place 7 days from the day the projections are made.

If this is true, then why did the projection of 81k deaths move up to 93K?  I was a bit confused by the 7-day thing. Was it "we expect" (thinking at some point they will get with the program) or "we hope" (thinking it's more than likely, but no sure that they will). The fact Tennessee issues a stay at  home order after initially resisting, gives me hope, but I'm not at all convinced 17 more states are going to change their minds in a week.

[OutsiderFan]

The UW guy made clear that the low end of projections are based on an assumption all states have stay at home orders.

My impression from the interview (which could be wrong) was that the low end of projections assumes that all states currently lacking stay-at-home orders will have them in place 7 days from the day the projections are made.

If this is true, then why did the projection of 81k deaths move up to 93K?  I was a bit confused by the 7-day thing. Was it "we expect" (thinking at some point they will get with the program) or "we hope" (thinking it's more than likely, but no sure that they will). The fact Tennessee issues a stay at  home order after initially resisting, gives me hope, but I'm not at all convinced 17 more states are going to change their minds in a week.