[burger]

But there is little to no support for the bell-shaped curves they're using.

Again, Gaussian error function ≠ Gaussian function.  It is not a bell-shaped curve; it's a sinusoidal curve.  And the SEIR model would predict that a cumulative count of deaths would be a sinusoidal curve (though not, as far as I can tell, a Gaussian error function).

BC

The model uses the Gaussian error function for the cumulative number of deaths.   The curve for the number of deaths by day is just the derivative of the error function, which is a gaussian curve.  That's what they're showing in the results here http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I'm not sure why they're modeling the cumulative deaths rather than the individual counts by day, as that is surely a far easier equation to model with no integrals involved.

[burger]

But there is little to no support for the bell-shaped curves they're using.

Again, Gaussian error function ≠ Gaussian function.  It is not a bell-shaped curve; it's a sinusoidal curve.  And the SEIR model would predict that a cumulative count of deaths would be a sinusoidal curve (though not, as far as I can tell, a Gaussian error function).

BC

The model uses the Gaussian error function for the cumulative number of deaths.   The curve for the number of deaths by day is just the derivative of the error function, which is a gaussian curve.  That's what they're showing in the results here http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I'm not sure why they're modeling the cumulative deaths rather than the individual counts by day, as that is surely a far easier equation to model with no integrals involved.