[burger]

This modeling "only" arrives at 84,000 total deaths in U.S.

I've looked at the numbers projected for the various states and all seem small to me, but this comes from the University of Washington, which has done a lot of good work on this pandemic.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I read through the methods, and this isn't even a model. It's a curve fitting exercise*.  They are simply fitting a normal (bell-shaped) curve to the death counts.  There are past examples (like HIV) where fitting this kind of curve gave wildly misleading results.  I would put zero stock in these predictions.

*curve fitting is fine for describing the distribution of past events, but it's useless for prediction.

[burger]

This modeling "only" arrives at 84,000 total deaths in U.S.

I've looked at the numbers projected for the various states and all seem small to me, but this comes from the University of Washington, which has done a lot of good work on this pandemic.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I read through the methods, and this isn't even a model. It's a curve fitting exercise*.  They are simply fitting a normal (bell-shaped) curve to the death counts.  There are past examples (like HIV) where fitting this kind of curve gave wildly misleading results.  I would put zero stock in these predictions.

*curve fitting is fine for describing the distribution of past events, but it's useless for prediction.