03-30-2020, 11:05 AM
One thing that would result in an earlier peak is social distancing measures. Another is if prevalence is much higher than we expect. Say instead of unmeasured cases being 10x, they are actually 20 or 30x of measured cases. This means its spreading faster than initial models predicted, and so peak will be sooner. Also total deaths lower.
I suspect both of these are true to some extent.
I suspect both of these are true to some extent.