Articles like the Medium one say "all" we have to do is:
"With a few more weeks, we could get our testing situation in order, and start testing everybody"
and
"We could also set up a tracing operation like the ones they have in China or other East Asia countries"
People who think "The Dance" is going to work -- Has anyone seen any signs of any of these things in the US?
In a MercuryNews interview with Sara Cody, she said of Wuhan-style contact tracing:
“We can’t use that same strategy” due to short staffing, said Cody. “Trying to map and figure out where are some hotspots for transmission — we really don’t have the data to enable us to do that. That’s still a pretty fuzzy part of the picture.”
"All" America has to do is:
1) Be able to test everyone who needs to be tested.
2) Be able to do all the epidemiological/quarantining/contact tracing work that needs to be done. Have you seen any signs of hiring?
3) Cancel all mass events for a year (like Mardi Gras, sheesh...)
4) Make available 300 million N95 masks EACH DAY. That's what they do in Taiwan and Korea -- they have so much PPE, it's widespread among everyday people. Right now, we don't even have enough PPE for healthcare workers.
5) Be politically willing to force a national shutdown whenever needed (otherwise, people will just move around and spread the disease)
6) Shut down all international travel. For needed travel, as people get off a plane, they should be sent to designated quarantine airport hotels, where they must stay at until cleared via time and testing.
So maybe this can happen. I *wish* Trump could become the president to do these things. So far, his pattern is to do nothing and blame others, then, belatedly, after being criticized on the news for a few months, he starts to act. Based on the past pattern, everything is started about 3+ months too late. So Trump will think of 300M masks a day around December. Trump will think of hiring a national team for contact tracing around November, and then rate himself a '10'. Trump will restrict all international travel in a messy form (with brobdingnagian lines of people in customs) around August, then he will fix the brobdingnagian lines in customs problem after watching a critical segment on Fox News, so maybe there will be better airport spacing in August or September, after seeding a second massive wave across the US.
Assuming the lack of a comprehensive federal plan with leadership, I expect 1-4 more hammers until a vaccine is developed, unless they get tired of it, fire Fauci, and decide to go for the "unmitigated disaster" plan.
On the plus side, we don't just need a US company to develop a vaccine -- if *any* country develops one, it could help. That increases the possibilities that someone could get lucky in a slightly shorter timeline. If one of the earliest candidates work, some people (healthcare workers, the dying, and the very wealthy) could be getting doses before the end of the year, so maybe someday there will be some for the rest of us.
"With a few more weeks, we could get our testing situation in order, and start testing everybody"
and
"We could also set up a tracing operation like the ones they have in China or other East Asia countries"
People who think "The Dance" is going to work -- Has anyone seen any signs of any of these things in the US?
In a MercuryNews interview with Sara Cody, she said of Wuhan-style contact tracing:
“We can’t use that same strategy” due to short staffing, said Cody. “Trying to map and figure out where are some hotspots for transmission — we really don’t have the data to enable us to do that. That’s still a pretty fuzzy part of the picture.”
"All" America has to do is:
1) Be able to test everyone who needs to be tested.
2) Be able to do all the epidemiological/quarantining/contact tracing work that needs to be done. Have you seen any signs of hiring?
3) Cancel all mass events for a year (like Mardi Gras, sheesh...)
4) Make available 300 million N95 masks EACH DAY. That's what they do in Taiwan and Korea -- they have so much PPE, it's widespread among everyday people. Right now, we don't even have enough PPE for healthcare workers.
5) Be politically willing to force a national shutdown whenever needed (otherwise, people will just move around and spread the disease)
6) Shut down all international travel. For needed travel, as people get off a plane, they should be sent to designated quarantine airport hotels, where they must stay at until cleared via time and testing.
So maybe this can happen. I *wish* Trump could become the president to do these things. So far, his pattern is to do nothing and blame others, then, belatedly, after being criticized on the news for a few months, he starts to act. Based on the past pattern, everything is started about 3+ months too late. So Trump will think of 300M masks a day around December. Trump will think of hiring a national team for contact tracing around November, and then rate himself a '10'. Trump will restrict all international travel in a messy form (with brobdingnagian lines of people in customs) around August, then he will fix the brobdingnagian lines in customs problem after watching a critical segment on Fox News, so maybe there will be better airport spacing in August or September, after seeding a second massive wave across the US.
Assuming the lack of a comprehensive federal plan with leadership, I expect 1-4 more hammers until a vaccine is developed, unless they get tired of it, fire Fauci, and decide to go for the "unmitigated disaster" plan.
On the plus side, we don't just need a US company to develop a vaccine -- if *any* country develops one, it could help. That increases the possibilities that someone could get lucky in a slightly shorter timeline. If one of the earliest candidates work, some people (healthcare workers, the dying, and the very wealthy) could be getting doses before the end of the year, so maybe someday there will be some for the rest of us.