[chrisk]

Apparently Italy issued its countrywide lockdown order on March 9. They were told it would take 2 weeks to start showing results. That seems to have been accurate. They had their peak CEA and death increase on 3/21. What we see is spread will stop when lockdown is preserved, but it takes 1-2 weeks for most infections to present symptoms. This means after three weeks there should be very few new infections. Then the issue becomes how do you slowly wind up distancing so another wave doesn’t occur.

Heavy testing like South Korea so you can then do contact tracing

[chrisk]

Apparently Italy issued its countrywide lockdown order on March 9. They were told it would take 2 weeks to start showing results. That seems to have been accurate. They had their peak CEA and death increase on 3/21. What we see is spread will stop when lockdown is preserved, but it takes 1-2 weeks for most infections to present symptoms. This means after three weeks there should be very few new infections. Then the issue becomes how do you slowly wind up distancing so another wave doesn’t occur.

Heavy testing like South Korea so you can then do contact tracing