[burger]

I think by definition we'll end up beating it, once herd immunity becomes the order of the day.  

Two items that make me pause: the most politically connected person I know says that if hoarding and shortages worsen any further, the governors of some major states will call out the National Guard to administer food distribution.  Now I don't know if that means an armed soldier in front of every Costco teller line, but it doesn't sound good.

Secondly, there were 1,748 new infections in the USA (with 109 deaths) in the second to the last measurable 24 hour period, and 2,587 new cases with 150 new deaths in the most recent 24 hours.  Not good.

If social distancing measures start to work, it won't become obvious for ~10 days or more.  Because we're not doing widespread testing, it's about 10 days from infection to when symptoms become severe enough to seek testing or care.  So, there is a 10-ish-day backlog of cases waiting to crop up. 

That, plus, testing is still ramping up in a lot of places so numbers are increasing as more tests get done.

So, numbers are probably going to get vastly worse before they improve.  I believe two days ago we added ~1,000 cases (can't find the tracking site I was looking at).  So, new cases are increasing by ~800 per day.  That means we're about 9 days away from getting 10,000 new cases per day.  That's exponential growth for you.

On a more positive note, I'm not too worried about the food situation.  Stores could easily put purchase limits into place.  And supposedly the food supply is not in question--people are just buying too much at once.

[burger]

I think by definition we'll end up beating it, once herd immunity becomes the order of the day.  

Two items that make me pause: the most politically connected person I know says that if hoarding and shortages worsen any further, the governors of some major states will call out the National Guard to administer food distribution.  Now I don't know if that means an armed soldier in front of every Costco teller line, but it doesn't sound good.

Secondly, there were 1,748 new infections in the USA (with 109 deaths) in the second to the last measurable 24 hour period, and 2,587 new cases with 150 new deaths in the most recent 24 hours.  Not good.

If social distancing measures start to work, it won't become obvious for ~10 days or more.  Because we're not doing widespread testing, it's about 10 days from infection to when symptoms become severe enough to seek testing or care.  So, there is a 10-ish-day backlog of cases waiting to crop up. 

That, plus, testing is still ramping up in a lot of places so numbers are increasing as more tests get done.

So, numbers are probably going to get vastly worse before they improve.  I believe two days ago we added ~1,000 cases (can't find the tracking site I was looking at).  So, new cases are increasing by ~800 per day.  That means we're about 9 days away from getting 10,000 new cases per day.  That's exponential growth for you.

On a more positive note, I'm not too worried about the food situation.  Stores could easily put purchase limits into place.  And supposedly the food supply is not in question--people are just buying too much at once.