03-12-2020, 09:54 PM
The facts are that we don't know what is going to happen. We don't know how many people are already infected and not yet "sick". There are models, but these models are not validated. They may match conditions that do not exist in a given situation. That is why we must overreact and assume the worst. If it is not that bad, great. The larger error is to assert we know what is going to happen, because we don't. All models are wrong, some models are useful. We don't yet know which ones.