[burger]

2) A new study (can't find it now, sorry) showed that the spread of the disease only slowed when China put their draconian quarantine into place.  Voluntary measures like "social distancing" and requiring masks had little effect. That does not bode well for the US because I don't think that politicians here have the gumption to do what is going to be required.

Was that a study or just, like, a tweet? Because I was looking into this and China's count of cases did deflect on the same day as the quarantine was implemented, but I'm not sure that's meaningful because there should be a delay between the quarantine going into effect and the curve bending (because you're still catching up to transmission that happened beforehand). In light of a few posts upthread that has me wondering if those numbers are legit, or if someone somewhere decided to massage them to say "look, the quarantine is working

Actual study, which I can't find now*.  They compared the R0 (intrinsic rate of spread) of the virus before and after the quarantine.  Before was like 2-3ish (very fast).  After was 0.3.  Any value below 1 means the virus will eventually (though maybe not quickly) stop spreading.

Also, given that entire cities in China have been turned into de facto prisons, I don't see how the virus would be spreading. And the rate of spread in the US and Europe is consistent with what was reported early on in Wuhan.

*The number of new studies that has come out of this is amazing and growing quickly.  This makes it very difficult to search for specific articles.

[burger]

2) A new study (can't find it now, sorry) showed that the spread of the disease only slowed when China put their draconian quarantine into place.  Voluntary measures like "social distancing" and requiring masks had little effect. That does not bode well for the US because I don't think that politicians here have the gumption to do what is going to be required.

Was that a study or just, like, a tweet? Because I was looking into this and China's count of cases did deflect on the same day as the quarantine was implemented, but I'm not sure that's meaningful because there should be a delay between the quarantine going into effect and the curve bending (because you're still catching up to transmission that happened beforehand). In light of a few posts upthread that has me wondering if those numbers are legit, or if someone somewhere decided to massage them to say "look, the quarantine is working

Actual study, which I can't find now*.  They compared the R0 (intrinsic rate of spread) of the virus before and after the quarantine.  Before was like 2-3ish (very fast).  After was 0.3.  Any value below 1 means the virus will eventually (though maybe not quickly) stop spreading.

Also, given that entire cities in China have been turned into de facto prisons, I don't see how the virus would be spreading. And the rate of spread in the US and Europe is consistent with what was reported early on in Wuhan.

*The number of new studies that has come out of this is amazing and growing quickly.  This makes it very difficult to search for specific articles.