[teejers1]

I don’t know. If it was Stanford’s defense, I’d say sure, but the forty niner defense is such that the difference between having to go 73 yards for a touchdown and having to go 30 yards for a touchdown is significant. When Seattle started their drive, the Niners had a 77% chance of winning (per ESPN),  that was down to a 58% probability of winning when Seattle had a first and ten at the SF 47.  After picking up half the distance on a 24 yard pass, Seattle was actually favored to win.  So, figure a first and ten at the thirty outs the odds at 50/50.

I think the math works out in favor of going for it for most fourth down conversion probabilities, but I’m not going to try and solve for the break even point.  The NFL being what it is, though, I bet almost every coach punts in that situation.

BC

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So the Niners survived their failure to secure the tie in their earlier meeting.

So true.  That was my first thought upon hearing about the final score - the game should NOT have had this much on the line for SF (though perhaps Seattle doesn't lay an egg last week if they needed the W to keep this last game meaningful).

BTW, I disagree that we'll see a rematch.  Seattle is vulnerable on the road.  But then again, maybe the 'Niners won't hold up their end of the bargain.  Really hope D.  Ford is back for the playoffs.

The game still would have had a lot on the line.  A 12-3-1 NFC West champion still has to play a wild card game, so they wouldn’t have benefited at all from the tie if they had lost today, except for being able to host the wild card.  Winning today gave them home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that was the case regardless of whether they lost or tied against Seattle the first time.

Now a win, in overtime, against Seattle last time would have let the Niners clinch home field last week, and allowed them to rest their starters.

So, even though it was not at all clear at the time, in retrospect, playing for the win wound up being the right call.  At the time, though, the loss was more likely to hurt them than the tie was to help, and there was no way to anticipate that in advance, so at the time going for the tie was absolutely the right thing to do.

BC

Hosting (at least) one playoff game as division champ is far preferable to going on the road for the distance as a wild card team.  Sure, the current situation is obviously the most, but there never should have been that much on the line in yesterday's game.  Just my take.

[teejers1]

I don’t know. If it was Stanford’s defense, I’d say sure, but the forty niner defense is such that the difference between having to go 73 yards for a touchdown and having to go 30 yards for a touchdown is significant. When Seattle started their drive, the Niners had a 77% chance of winning (per ESPN),  that was down to a 58% probability of winning when Seattle had a first and ten at the SF 47.  After picking up half the distance on a 24 yard pass, Seattle was actually favored to win.  So, figure a first and ten at the thirty outs the odds at 50/50.

I think the math works out in favor of going for it for most fourth down conversion probabilities, but I’m not going to try and solve for the break even point.  The NFL being what it is, though, I bet almost every coach punts in that situation.

BC

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So the Niners survived their failure to secure the tie in their earlier meeting.

So true.  That was my first thought upon hearing about the final score - the game should NOT have had this much on the line for SF (though perhaps Seattle doesn't lay an egg last week if they needed the W to keep this last game meaningful).

BTW, I disagree that we'll see a rematch.  Seattle is vulnerable on the road.  But then again, maybe the 'Niners won't hold up their end of the bargain.  Really hope D.  Ford is back for the playoffs.

The game still would have had a lot on the line.  A 12-3-1 NFC West champion still has to play a wild card game, so they wouldn’t have benefited at all from the tie if they had lost today, except for being able to host the wild card.  Winning today gave them home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that was the case regardless of whether they lost or tied against Seattle the first time.

Now a win, in overtime, against Seattle last time would have let the Niners clinch home field last week, and allowed them to rest their starters.

So, even though it was not at all clear at the time, in retrospect, playing for the win wound up being the right call.  At the time, though, the loss was more likely to hurt them than the tie was to help, and there was no way to anticipate that in advance, so at the time going for the tie was absolutely the right thing to do.

BC

Hosting (at least) one playoff game as division champ is far preferable to going on the road for the distance as a wild card team.  Sure, the current situation is obviously the most, but there never should have been that much on the line in yesterday's game.  Just my take.