(08-07-2019, 03:52 PM)BosCard Wrote:(08-07-2019, 11:04 AM)2006alum Wrote: I am definitely very cautiously optimistic, but I'm not the type to count chickens before they hatch. I agree that this is definitely Tara's best recruiting swing since the Wiggins-Appel-Pederson-Ogwumike x2 stretch from the mid 2000s to early 2010s.
But with that said... let's wait and see how everyone settles in. I am a little skeptical as to whether Brink and Demetre will remain ranked as high as they presently are when everything shakes out, based on what I've seen from their play and others in their year. At one point Brink was No. 1 in her year, then slipped to No. 2, and now No. 3. Based on what I've seen of her play and others in her year from Team USA games, etc, I would not be surprised if she lands more in the low (5-10) top ten when it all shakes out. Still a top recruit, but I don't think she'll be transformational the way Bueckers will be for UConn (who, unfortunately, really looks like the next coming of Diana Taurasi).
And just remember, for every Appel we've had, we've had a Michelle Harrison, for every Wiggins a Cissy Pierce - very highly ranked recruits who didn't have much impact at the college level. Anyone remember a single highlight moment from Ashley Cimino, the McD's A-A back in 2007? And recall that Kailee Johnson was once one of the top 3 (and I think at one point early on in her sophomore year #1) ranked recruits, and she wasn't even the best "Johnson, K.," on the floor from the minute her much-less-regarded name twin Kaylee Johnson stepped foot on the Farm.
But that also means we can get pleasant surprises the other direction. Would anyone have thought it'd be Lacie Hull who'd be the starter among our three frosh last season? Does anyone think Carrington isn't a top 20 player in her class (she was 34th)? Both Brittany McPhee and Alanna Smith stepped up in ways that their recruiting profiles would not have suggested.
In the end, for me, the rankings matter less once we can see firsthand how they play against D1 level competition, and in that regard, I'd put Belibi above Brink in terms of who is likely to have an immediate impact at Stanford. Entirely independent of her dunks, if she were a stock, I'd buy long, long, long. She will do big things on the Farm, whatever her recruiting rank.
I agree with 2006alum that rankings can certainly change and Kailee Johnson is a good example as her ranking slid to around #20 her senior year of high school. However, I would argue that a top 5 ranked player is very different than a top 25-30 ranked player. Jones, Brink and Demetre are all currently ranked in the top 5 of their classes. Michelle Harrison, Cissy Pierce and Ashley Cimino were all 25-30 ish ranked players and I would say the expectations for players ranked in that range (as a high school senior) is very different than a player who is top 5. And I believe Demetre's ranking has been increasing. And while Brink did not get a ton of playing time on the u19, she was one of the younger post players on the team whereas most of her 2020 peers were guards where there weren't that many 2018 or 2019 players ahead of them on the team.
Totally. W/r/t Brink, I just didn't see much from the times I've seen her play with the US team last year and this year to suggest she'd be what I think of as a consensus top 5 recruit. I would love to be surprised, and her game may very well grow. But IMHO Bueckers, Van Lith, and Clark (to some degree) all seemed to impact the game much more than Brink in the most recent U18. The question mark for me with Demetre is that she hasn't made any of the U1X national teams and players ranked considerably below her in the ESPNW have, and I've been impressed by her highlights tapes but not floored the way, say, Belibi and Jones both were clearly standouts even two years ago. (And maybe just color me the cautiously optimistic type.)
(08-07-2019, 04:22 PM)BobK Wrote: I saw Kailee Johnson play three travel games after her Jr HS year. Thought she would be a of immense proportions success. However school interferred. It happens and she chose her path. Something to always keep in mind.
Yes, and I didn't mean to suggest otherwise, or to imply she didn't choose her own path. All I meant is that we've had "consensus" top 5 recruits as of sophomore year in high school (i.e. Demetre now and Brink last year) who walked away from the game before they've even graduated from Stanford, and had limited impact even before that, so I'm hesitant to speculate 4 years out as to who will be our impact players. Which just means that as in life, there are no guarantees, especially for underclassman recruits. If memory serves, Anna Wilson was also, at one point, ranked around the top 10 or 15, and while I love her and she's a clear fan favorite, she was not as much of an impact player as I think we were expecting her to be when she committed (for lots of reasons, including all the da*n injuries.)
