[BostonCard]

I wish I could find the article, but the analytics find that the mid-range jumper is the least efficient shot in basketball.  As a defense, you’ve generally won if you can force the other team to take midrange jumpers, even if they aren’t well defended.  The reason is obvious; field goal percentage goes down as a function of distance from the basket, but once you hit the three point line, the value of each make goes up 50%.  So, unless your mid-range jumper is 50% more likely to go in than your three point shot, you are better off backing up and taking the three, or working the ball inside further to get a higher percentage two.

BC

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This is NBA data, but the pattern should be similar with college data...



You can see that even a closely guarded shot within 5 feet from the basket has a higher value than a wide open shot from midrange.  The valley appears between 10 feet out and the three point line, and is only moderately influenced by how well defended the shot is.

BC

[BostonCard]

I wish I could find the article, but the analytics find that the mid-range jumper is the least efficient shot in basketball.  As a defense, you’ve generally won if you can force the other team to take midrange jumpers, even if they aren’t well defended.  The reason is obvious; field goal percentage goes down as a function of distance from the basket, but once you hit the three point line, the value of each make goes up 50%.  So, unless your mid-range jumper is 50% more likely to go in than your three point shot, you are better off backing up and taking the three, or working the ball inside further to get a higher percentage two.

BC

---

This is NBA data, but the pattern should be similar with college data...



You can see that even a closely guarded shot within 5 feet from the basket has a higher value than a wide open shot from midrange.  The valley appears between 10 feet out and the three point line, and is only moderately influenced by how well defended the shot is.

BC