[qwerty49]

Can I make a modest proposal...

Now that fall Stanford sports have started and football is four days away, can I ask that the Giants threads go on a temporary hiatus on this board (at least until something significant happens or until the end of Spring sports)?

BC

I second this! +1

The mods have discussed quietly merging newly started Giants threads into existing ones, to keep the number down. I don't think we should ban them entirely since some of our members really seem to enjoy discussing the Giants here.

I wasn't suggesting a ban, just a temporary hiatus, and nothing formal.  It was more a request that the frequent Giants posters be a bit more selective about when they post about the Giants, at least until the next Stanford athletics lull.

BC

Respectfully, to use a baseball term, I think you folks are a bit off-base on this one, and the tone borders on being a touch arrogant, which as an outsider I can say does tend to be a subtle undercurrent on this board at times.  Because we don't seem to have the "insider" pipeline other boards might have, there's very little to say here about Stanford football until we actually see what's going on and who's doing what, --- and that day will come soon enough this Friday.  

And as BobK pointed out, he posts about #1-ranked WVB and many other sports, and way fewer people respond than on the Giants' threads.

I grew up in the Bay Area, have two Stanford degrees, have held season FB tix for 45 years that I travel 800 miles back and forth to use and gosh, I even went to a high school whose mascot, colors and fight song were the same as Stanford's.  But I was a Giants fan way before I even heard of Stanford.  And Stanford fans who have been through the Bad Old Days should be the first to understand how Giants fans can get excited given the historically heartbreaking performance of the Orange and Black.

If folks want to bury the Giants threads, then they should post more meaningful content about Stanford, and nature will take its course, and everybody will be happy.  Don't blame Giants fans because there's not much new to discuss about Stanford at this point.

---

Would love, just rejoice if Belt were traded, but $ 17M next three years.   

The evident discord over Belt's career to date is really fascinating. I've concluded that my feelings about him are influenced more by how his salary prevents the team from other upgrades than I am about his actual play. I'm not sure what to make of his stats (some modern metrics seem to support those that say "he's a better player than you think"), e.g. career OPS .816, WAR for his age 27-30 seasons 3.7, 4.6, 3.0, 2.4 (to date), but there's less support with traditional stats like batting average over that same period: .280, .275, .241, .268, and RBI's: 68, 82, 51, 44. Belt isn't particularly a fan favorite and many on this board have expressed the general feeling that he's not a positive contributor. To date, Belt has 112 HR's, 413 RBI, and one All-Star appearance. I just have mixed feelings.

Here are some interesting statistical comparisons for three Giants who played the corners within my fan memory (and certainly within Bob's...):

Player #1: Career OPS .792; Season stats for 4 seasons from age 27-30: WAR (7.2, 3.1, -0.1/0.3, 1.4), Batting Ave. (.240, .243, .205, .254), RBI (79, 73, 46, 72). Note that the split WAR represents a year in which the player was traded midseason.

Player #2: Career OPS .784; Season stats for 4 seasons from age 27-30: WAR (1.1, -0.7, 2.9, 0.7), Batting Ave. (.289, .257, .281 .248) RBI (102, 67, 104, 79).

Player #3: Career OPS .880, Season stats for 4 seasons from age 27-30 WAR (5.2, 3.8, 1.5, 3.6), Batting Ave. (.301, .300, .283, .329) RBI (116, 73, 73, 80)

Before reading further, can you guess the names of players #1, 2, and 3, and how would you feel about the relative 'worth' of each player at a corner position based solely on numbers? Would you keep that player long-term and see how his age 31-36 seasons played out? And, how would you rank Belt within this grouping of 4 players? Answers are below the asterisks...

*
*
*

Player #1 is Darrell Evans. Other career stats of note: 414 HR's, 1354 RBI, 1605 walks, and .248 batting average. A 2-time All-Star. Leaving the 'Stick was great for Evans' career and included three great seasons with the Tigers with 40, 29, and 34 home runs during his age 38-40 seasons. Keeping Evans and moving him permanently to 1B would have prevented the Al Oliver, Dan Driessen, Rick Lancellotti era.

Player #3 is probably an easy guess. Will the Thrill. Career stats: 284 HR's, 1205 RBI, 937 walks, and .303 Batting Ave. 6-time All-Star. Declining power production and a couple of injuries lessened his longer-term career impact, although a career 56.5 WAR is nothing to sneeze at. (But, I didn't realize until looking this up that Evans' career WAR is higher at 58.8). Clark's post age-30 career was certainly significantly better than what the Giants go out of moving Rich Aurilia to 1B.

Player #2 is long-time fan favorite JT Snow. Career stats: 189 HR, 877 RBI, 760 walks, and .268 Batting Ave. No All-Star picks. Career WAR of 11.0. He had essentially two more great years after age 30 and then his offensive production fell off the cliff. A great glove at 1B. 

The list of Giants first basemen since McCovey is not a distinguished list other than Clark. Belt seems to slot in second place behind Clark since Evans played more 3B than 1B until he left for the Tigers. But doesn't Belt's career trajectory looks better than Snow (if not his defense)? Is there anyone else since McCovey left for San Diego who's had a 4-year stretch better than Belt other than the Thrill? Or even a 3-year stretch? Let's not forget that we've endured Rick Lancellotti, JR Phillips, and Willie Montanez...

I do acknowledge that the 17M contract skews my thinking about Belt a lot. As a hitter, he's actually a lot like Evans but without the HR power. Irritatingly patient, willing to take the walk. But his batting value seems lower than Evans because of the lack of HR production and not driving in enough runs. But honestly pretty distinguished at 1B for the post-McCovey era...

Thanks Triangle for a very interesting comparison.  Subjectively, I would agree that Belt is a clear #2 to Clark on the 1B ladder, and probably right with Evans and Snow in that second tier.  The interesting comparison starting next year would be Posey at 1B, since we know his catching days will only decline over time.

My subjective take is that Belt's main shortcoming is I think he does everything in the zone between average and slightly above average, i.e. between a 5 and 7 on a ten-point scale for offense, i.e. power, hitting for average, driving in runs.  His OBP might be 7-8 but it's also negated somewhat by his lack of foot speed.  So all that, when put against $17M, indicates mediocre bang for the buck.

[qwerty49]

Can I make a modest proposal...

Now that fall Stanford sports have started and football is four days away, can I ask that the Giants threads go on a temporary hiatus on this board (at least until something significant happens or until the end of Spring sports)?

BC

I second this! +1

The mods have discussed quietly merging newly started Giants threads into existing ones, to keep the number down. I don't think we should ban them entirely since some of our members really seem to enjoy discussing the Giants here.

I wasn't suggesting a ban, just a temporary hiatus, and nothing formal.  It was more a request that the frequent Giants posters be a bit more selective about when they post about the Giants, at least until the next Stanford athletics lull.

BC

Respectfully, to use a baseball term, I think you folks are a bit off-base on this one, and the tone borders on being a touch arrogant, which as an outsider I can say does tend to be a subtle undercurrent on this board at times.  Because we don't seem to have the "insider" pipeline other boards might have, there's very little to say here about Stanford football until we actually see what's going on and who's doing what, --- and that day will come soon enough this Friday.  

And as BobK pointed out, he posts about #1-ranked WVB and many other sports, and way fewer people respond than on the Giants' threads.

I grew up in the Bay Area, have two Stanford degrees, have held season FB tix for 45 years that I travel 800 miles back and forth to use and gosh, I even went to a high school whose mascot, colors and fight song were the same as Stanford's.  But I was a Giants fan way before I even heard of Stanford.  And Stanford fans who have been through the Bad Old Days should be the first to understand how Giants fans can get excited given the historically heartbreaking performance of the Orange and Black.

If folks want to bury the Giants threads, then they should post more meaningful content about Stanford, and nature will take its course, and everybody will be happy.  Don't blame Giants fans because there's not much new to discuss about Stanford at this point.

---

Would love, just rejoice if Belt were traded, but $ 17M next three years.   

The evident discord over Belt's career to date is really fascinating. I've concluded that my feelings about him are influenced more by how his salary prevents the team from other upgrades than I am about his actual play. I'm not sure what to make of his stats (some modern metrics seem to support those that say "he's a better player than you think"), e.g. career OPS .816, WAR for his age 27-30 seasons 3.7, 4.6, 3.0, 2.4 (to date), but there's less support with traditional stats like batting average over that same period: .280, .275, .241, .268, and RBI's: 68, 82, 51, 44. Belt isn't particularly a fan favorite and many on this board have expressed the general feeling that he's not a positive contributor. To date, Belt has 112 HR's, 413 RBI, and one All-Star appearance. I just have mixed feelings.

Here are some interesting statistical comparisons for three Giants who played the corners within my fan memory (and certainly within Bob's...):

Player #1: Career OPS .792; Season stats for 4 seasons from age 27-30: WAR (7.2, 3.1, -0.1/0.3, 1.4), Batting Ave. (.240, .243, .205, .254), RBI (79, 73, 46, 72). Note that the split WAR represents a year in which the player was traded midseason.

Player #2: Career OPS .784; Season stats for 4 seasons from age 27-30: WAR (1.1, -0.7, 2.9, 0.7), Batting Ave. (.289, .257, .281 .248) RBI (102, 67, 104, 79).

Player #3: Career OPS .880, Season stats for 4 seasons from age 27-30 WAR (5.2, 3.8, 1.5, 3.6), Batting Ave. (.301, .300, .283, .329) RBI (116, 73, 73, 80)

Before reading further, can you guess the names of players #1, 2, and 3, and how would you feel about the relative 'worth' of each player at a corner position based solely on numbers? Would you keep that player long-term and see how his age 31-36 seasons played out? And, how would you rank Belt within this grouping of 4 players? Answers are below the asterisks...

*
*
*

Player #1 is Darrell Evans. Other career stats of note: 414 HR's, 1354 RBI, 1605 walks, and .248 batting average. A 2-time All-Star. Leaving the 'Stick was great for Evans' career and included three great seasons with the Tigers with 40, 29, and 34 home runs during his age 38-40 seasons. Keeping Evans and moving him permanently to 1B would have prevented the Al Oliver, Dan Driessen, Rick Lancellotti era.

Player #3 is probably an easy guess. Will the Thrill. Career stats: 284 HR's, 1205 RBI, 937 walks, and .303 Batting Ave. 6-time All-Star. Declining power production and a couple of injuries lessened his longer-term career impact, although a career 56.5 WAR is nothing to sneeze at. (But, I didn't realize until looking this up that Evans' career WAR is higher at 58.8). Clark's post age-30 career was certainly significantly better than what the Giants go out of moving Rich Aurilia to 1B.

Player #2 is long-time fan favorite JT Snow. Career stats: 189 HR, 877 RBI, 760 walks, and .268 Batting Ave. No All-Star picks. Career WAR of 11.0. He had essentially two more great years after age 30 and then his offensive production fell off the cliff. A great glove at 1B. 

The list of Giants first basemen since McCovey is not a distinguished list other than Clark. Belt seems to slot in second place behind Clark since Evans played more 3B than 1B until he left for the Tigers. But doesn't Belt's career trajectory looks better than Snow (if not his defense)? Is there anyone else since McCovey left for San Diego who's had a 4-year stretch better than Belt other than the Thrill? Or even a 3-year stretch? Let's not forget that we've endured Rick Lancellotti, JR Phillips, and Willie Montanez...

I do acknowledge that the 17M contract skews my thinking about Belt a lot. As a hitter, he's actually a lot like Evans but without the HR power. Irritatingly patient, willing to take the walk. But his batting value seems lower than Evans because of the lack of HR production and not driving in enough runs. But honestly pretty distinguished at 1B for the post-McCovey era...

Thanks Triangle for a very interesting comparison.  Subjectively, I would agree that Belt is a clear #2 to Clark on the 1B ladder, and probably right with Evans and Snow in that second tier.  The interesting comparison starting next year would be Posey at 1B, since we know his catching days will only decline over time.

My subjective take is that Belt's main shortcoming is I think he does everything in the zone between average and slightly above average, i.e. between a 5 and 7 on a ten-point scale for offense, i.e. power, hitting for average, driving in runs.  His OBP might be 7-8 but it's also negated somewhat by his lack of foot speed.  So all that, when put against $17M, indicates mediocre bang for the buck.