Great analysis. The only caution I'd add is that we're extrapolating from relatively small n's. Prior to the Arizona trips, Sniezek was .272 (6/22) and McPhee was .304 (7/23), so this is all pretty marginal in terms of differences.
To me, what's really key is how much defenses can expect to see a three-point threat, and here's the problem:
Last season, Karlie was making 2.52 treys per game (on 5.21 attempts).
This season, even including the Arizona games, Sniezek makes .625 treys per game (on 1.8 attempts).
By contrast, McPhee makes 1.14 treys (albeit on 5 attempts).
So while Marta has a higher success rate post-Arizona, McPhee is going to make twice as many treys per game as Marta is, so if you're a defending team, you're still more worried about McPhee than Sniezek. And because Sniezek isn't thought to shoot much, I suspect her attempts have come from much more open shots than McPhee gets to see. From the last few defenses we've faced, it's clear to me that the scouting report is to put their best defenders on McPhee and to double-team her the second she tries to enter the lane.
Now I agree that if Sniezek has our best trey shooting percentage, she should definitely be taking more shots, but I guess I would caution against extrapolating much out in terms of whether this is untapped potential or just a bit of fluky statistics. Based on the recruiting intel on the Hull twins, I suspect we're going to have much better trey threats next year when we have a few true wing players again. So this is probably a problem we have only for this year. (And hopefully Moschkau will continue to develop, since I think she also has a lot of potential as a Bonnie-esque wing).
If anything, my takeaway from the Arizona trip in terms of where our offense is chronically weak is that we need our team to develop at least one player with a really strong pull-up jumper. We haven't had that since Amber graduated and Lili left. It's the major offensive weapon missing from both McPhee and Carrington's arsenal, and it makes them much easier to defend because once they start to move toward to the basket, the defenders know to swamp the paint. When they're not drawing the fouls (and the refs were really stingy calling defensive fouls against both of them in both games), they're double- or triple-teamed and making a really low percentage play. I actually can't remember Williams attempting the shot either, so unless I'm miss-remembering, our primary offensive threats are all limited to the trey or the layup.
By contrast, ASU was killing us with their mid-range jump shot throughout the game. Fingall and Smith are the only ones I can think of who regularly attempt the mid-range jump shot, and both of them are doing it from the high post off a pass, rather than creating the jumper from a pull-up position off their own dribble.
To me, what's really key is how much defenses can expect to see a three-point threat, and here's the problem:
Last season, Karlie was making 2.52 treys per game (on 5.21 attempts).
This season, even including the Arizona games, Sniezek makes .625 treys per game (on 1.8 attempts).
By contrast, McPhee makes 1.14 treys (albeit on 5 attempts).
So while Marta has a higher success rate post-Arizona, McPhee is going to make twice as many treys per game as Marta is, so if you're a defending team, you're still more worried about McPhee than Sniezek. And because Sniezek isn't thought to shoot much, I suspect her attempts have come from much more open shots than McPhee gets to see. From the last few defenses we've faced, it's clear to me that the scouting report is to put their best defenders on McPhee and to double-team her the second she tries to enter the lane.
Now I agree that if Sniezek has our best trey shooting percentage, she should definitely be taking more shots, but I guess I would caution against extrapolating much out in terms of whether this is untapped potential or just a bit of fluky statistics. Based on the recruiting intel on the Hull twins, I suspect we're going to have much better trey threats next year when we have a few true wing players again. So this is probably a problem we have only for this year. (And hopefully Moschkau will continue to develop, since I think she also has a lot of potential as a Bonnie-esque wing).
If anything, my takeaway from the Arizona trip in terms of where our offense is chronically weak is that we need our team to develop at least one player with a really strong pull-up jumper. We haven't had that since Amber graduated and Lili left. It's the major offensive weapon missing from both McPhee and Carrington's arsenal, and it makes them much easier to defend because once they start to move toward to the basket, the defenders know to swamp the paint. When they're not drawing the fouls (and the refs were really stingy calling defensive fouls against both of them in both games), they're double- or triple-teamed and making a really low percentage play. I actually can't remember Williams attempting the shot either, so unless I'm miss-remembering, our primary offensive threats are all limited to the trey or the layup.
By contrast, ASU was killing us with their mid-range jump shot throughout the game. Fingall and Smith are the only ones I can think of who regularly attempt the mid-range jump shot, and both of them are doing it from the high post off a pass, rather than creating the jumper from a pull-up position off their own dribble.